Begbies Traynor's 'Red Flag Alert' research highlights the rapid acceleration of financial distress over the past 12 months. Currently 554,554 UK businesses are in 'significant' financial distress, marking a 30.8% rise compared to Q1 2023. This deterioration affects all twenty-two sectors covered by the research. Furthermore, levels of more severe 'critical' financial distress have surged by 20.1% compared to Q1 2023, impacting a total of 40,174 UK businesses. The situation is particularly concerning in the Construction, Real Estate, Financial Services, and Support Services sectors. Additionally, Red Flag Alert's historical data indicates that a large percentage of businesses currently experiencing 'significant' financial distress are likely to progress toward 'critical' financial distress if the economic backdrop does not improve. To read Begbies Traynor's news release, go to https://www.begbies-traynorgroup.com/news/business-health-statistics/over-half-a-million-uk-businesses-fighting-for-survival-as-uk-economy-stagnates.

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Atradius reveals significant increases in payment defaults for many cornerstone industries. Although Atradius' report on payment default trends for Q1 2024 reveals an overall decrease of 18% in the number of claims received from UK businesses compared to the same period in 2023, the report also highlights significant increases in payment defaults within several cornerstone industries. For instance, the energy and fuel sector experienced a 75% increase in payment defaults year-on-year in Q1, while packaging claims surged by 400% year-on-year and 25% quarter-on-quarter – the most substantial spike in instability across all sectors. The food and drinks sector, the largest manufacturing sector in the UK, also witnessed a notable 44% increase in claims. Additionally, metals saw a 55% increase in payment defaults in Q1 2024, with March 2024 recording an 83% increase year-on-year in payment default claims. Click here to read Atradius' news release.

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Xero's late payment data indicates that late payment delays may be increasing. The latest data from UK Xero Small Business Insights (XSBI) indicates that small businesses waited an average of 28.7 days to be paid after issuing an invoice in January and February, which is 0.3 days longer than in the December quarter. Moreover, average late payment times also increased by 0.6 days to reach 6.4 days in January and February, reversing the trend observed over the second half of 2023 when both payment time measures had been gradually decreasing. For Q1 2024, the length of time small businesses waited to be paid after issuing an invoice was 28.4 days – the same as the December quarter, due to faster payments in March. However, Xero cautions that this improvement is most likely due to the end of the financial year and is a pattern in the XSBI data observed at this time in all the countries tracked. To read Xero's news release, go to https://blog.xero.com/data-insights/xsbi-small-businesses-hiring/.

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Nearly one in five UK-listed companies issued a profit warning in the last 12 months. A new EY-Parthenon Profit Warnings report reveals that the percentage of UK-listed companies issuing profit warnings over the last twelve months increased to 18.7%, which is 1% higher than in 2008 at the peak of the Global Financial Crisis. Additionally, by the end of the first quarter of 2024, thirty-nine companies had issued three or more warnings over the last 12 months. Of these, just over a fifth of the companies were delisting or in the process of doing so, primarily due to insolvency or acquisition. Contract cancellations and delays were cited as the main reasons for warnings by 29% of companies, while higher costs and weaker consumer confidence accounted for 17% of warnings in Q1 2024." To read EY's news release, go to https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2024/04/nearly-one-in-five-uk-listed-companies-issued-a-profit-warning.

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Profit warnings are rising following a levelling out towards the end of last year, and the number of insolvencies continues to "skyrocket". The latest Infolink Gazette Quarterly Report for Q1 2024 has shown that profit warnings in Q1 2024 were up more than 20% (to 113 in Q1 2024), although they have reduced by 15% compared to the same period last year. The number of debtor-driven filings was also up by more than 25% to a total of 744 in Q1 2024, an increase of over 20% compared to filings in Q1 2023 and an increase of over 270% over a 3-year period. Lastly, in Q4 2023, there were 1609 Initial Stage Winding Up Petitions. In Q1 2022, 10% of all Winding Up Petitions were brought by HMRC. However, that figure increased to nearly 30% by the end of 2022 and 45% in Q1 2024. To read  Infolink Gazette Quarterly Report - Q1 2024, go to https://www.techcitylabs.com/resources/infolink-gazette-quarterly-report-q1-2024.

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UK company insolvencies in April 2024 were 4% lower than the same month in 2023. New data from Creditsafe has found that 2,486 companies in the UK became insolvent in April 2024 – a slight decrease compared to March and 4% lower than the same month in 2023. 17% of insolvencies in March came from within the UK construction sector. Creditsafe suggests that two sectors with traditionally high business failure rates are worth reviewing: Wholesale and Retail and Accommodation and Food Services. The combined total of these sectors represents 28% of all insolvencies. To read Creditsafe's news release, go to https://www.creditsafe.com/gb/en/blog/reports/insolvencies.html.

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Corporate insolvency in Scotland is at its highest level since the 2011-12 financial year. The latest Scottish Insolvency Statistics for 2023-24 indicate that there were 1,168 corporate insolvencies in the year – an increase of 3% from 2022-2023's figure of 1,132, 37% higher than 2021-2022's figure (854), and 23% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019-2020 (948). Richard Bathgate, Chair of R3 in Scotland and Restructuring Partner at Johnston Carmichael, commented: "Even though the figures published today represent a modest increase on last year, corporate insolvency in Scotland is at its highest level since the 2011-12 financial year [1,369] as the economic climate continues to affect the nation's businesses. To read R3's news release, go to https://www.r3.org.uk/press-policy-and-research/news/more/32038/page/1//.

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Corporate insolvencies in England and Wales decreased by 16.6% in March 2024. The latest data from the Insolvency Service has revealed that corporate insolvencies in England and Wales decreased by 16.6% in March 2024 to 1,815, compared to February and decreased by 17.2% compared to March 2023's figure. However, compared to pre-pandemic levels in March 2019, insolvencies increased by 14.8%. Currently, the construction industry is experiencing the highest levels of insolvency. President of R3, Tim Cooper, commented: "The biggest driver of the monthly and yearly fall in corporate insolvency numbers is a reduction in Creditors' Voluntary Liquidations. However, numbers for this process and overall levels of corporate insolvency are still higher than they were pre-pandemic." To read R3's news release, go to https://www.r3.org.uk/press-policy-and-research/news/more/32044/page/1//.

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UK Economy & Exports

UK GDP grew by 0.1% in February 2024 and by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that UK GDP grew by 0.1% in February 2024, following a growth of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised up from 0.2% in the ONS' previous publication). GDP is also estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to February 2024 compared with the three months to November 2023. Production output grew by 1.1% in February 2024 and was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP for the month, following a fall of 0.3% in January 2024 (revised down from a 0.2% fall in the ONS' previous publication. To read the ONS' news release, go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/february2024. Licensed under the terms of Open Government. Licence v3.0.

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The UK's growth will be the second poorest of advanced economies in 2024. The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) predicts that growth in the UK will rise from an estimated 0.1% in 2023 to 0.5% in 2024 as the lagged negative effects of high energy prices wane, then to 1.5% in 2025, as disinflation allows financial conditions to ease and real incomes to recover. This indicates a slower expansion than previously forecast by the IMF and suggests that the UK will be the second-slowest-performing major economy this year. Germany is expected to have the slowest growth, with a forecast of 0.2% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025. To read the IMF's news release, with a link to the full WEO, go to https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024?cid=ca-com-compd-pubs_belt.

 

EY predicts the UK economy's growth will accelerate in 2025. While the UK's economic outlook is expected to remain modest this year, growth is predicted to build throughout 2024 before accelerating in 2025, according to the new EY ITEM Club Spring Forecast. EY's Forecast expects the UK economy to grow by 0.7% in 2024, which is a slight downgrade from the 0.9% projected in January's Winter Forecast. However, GDP growth expectations for 2025 have been upgraded from 1.8% to 2%. Hywel Ball, EY UK Chair, commented: "Although growth in 2024 is forecast to remain subdued, we still expect this year to mark a turning point for the UK economy and provide a launchpad for a far brighter 2025. High inflation, energy prices and interest rates have mired the UK in economic stagnation in recent years, but all three obstacles to growth have now either fallen away already or are expected to diminish in 2024." To read EY's news release, go to https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2024/04/uk-economy-growth-to-accelerate-in-2025-as-barriers-fall.

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The UK economy "is trapped" in a low-to-no growth state. The BCC's Quarterly Economic Survey indicates that most UK firms reported no improvement in investment levels, sales, or cashflow in the first quarter of 2024, with business confidence levels remaining mostly unchanged. The percentage of respondents reporting increased domestic sales also remained steady at 36% – the same level as in Q4. However, notable sectoral differences were observed. While 44% of professional service firms reported a boost in sales, only 27% of logistic companies and 29% of retailers saw an increase. To read the BCC's news release, go to https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2024/04/bcc-quarterly-economic-survey-firms-treading-water-on-investment/.

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Tokio Marine suggests significant challenges lie ahead for the UK economy. Tokio Marine has published a report in which Ray Massey, Underwriting Director – Credit, notes that the UK slipped into recessionary territory in late 2023, with GDP growth projected to remain below 1% in 2024. Additionally, the business failure rate deteriorated sharply in 2023, with the Insolvency Service recording 25,158 company insolvencies in England and Wales – the third consecutive annual increase (up by 13.7% against 2022) and the highest reading since 1993. Moreover, the number of creditors' voluntary liquidations reached the highest level since the data series began in 1960. To read the report, go to https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-articles/thought-leadership/trade-credit-uk-economic-conditions-report-2024.

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The UK economy is gaining momentum. Following the Office for National Statistics' latest figures, which indicate the UK monthly GDP grew by 0.1% in February following a revised growth of 0.3% in January, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has advised that it expects UK GDP to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2024 and by 0.3% in the second quarter. NIESR notes that these forecasts remain broadly consistent with the longer-term trend of low but stable economic growth in the UK. Hailey Low, Associate Economist at NIESR, commented: "On the back of exiting a shallow recession in 2023, this seems to be a turning point, but in a broader perspective, the UK economy has flatlined since 2022." To read NIESR's news release, with a link to the full Tracker, go to https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/recessionary-pressures-receding-rearview-mirror-uk-economy-gains-momentum?type=gdp-trackers.

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UK retailers report six months of negative sales. The last six months mark the longest consecutive period of negative growth outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. BDO's data highlighted that in-store sales were negative for the fourth month in a row (-1.8%) and pulled down by sharp falls in both fashion and homewares sales. After three successive months of positive results, non-store sales were also negative (-2.3%). Sophie Michael, Head of Retail and Wholesale at BDO, commented: "These results continue to paint a bleak picture for retailers. . . .Going into April, retailers will see their costs rise even higher with the uplift in the national minimum wage and increased business rates." To read BDO's news release, go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2024/high-street-records-fifth-consecutive-month-of-negative-in-store-sales.

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No UK firms are among PwC's list of the fifty largest listed companies in the world. According to PwC's Global Top 100 Companies – April 2024, no UK companies are among the top fifty largest listed companies in the world, and only three UK companies have made it into the top hundred. Shell, the largest UK company, is currently placed at number fifty-three (three places lower than in March last year), while AstraZeneca is number fifty-five (eleven places lower than last year). Lastly, HSBC is number ninety-three on the list. Eight of the top ten companies and sixty-two of the top hundred are listed in the US. To read PwC's report, go to https://www.pwc.co.uk/audit/assets/pdf/global-100/global-top-100-companies-2024.pdf.

 

BCC warns of the impact that new customs checks and charges may have on UK businesses. The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) has expressed concern about the implications for small British businesses of new customs checks and charges that came into force on 30 April. The second phase of the UK's Border Target Operating Model introduced charges of up to £145 for imports of plant and animal products, marking the first time in decades that firms will have to pay such fees for EU imports of goods. Although only higher-risk goods will be subject to checks initially, the BCC cautions that there is no definitive list confirming which ones, nor any timetable for when other goods will be added. Government figures show that the UK imports just under 30% of all the food it consumes from the EU. To read BCC's news release, go to https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2024/04/concerns-mount-over-customs-costs-and-clarity/. 

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UK retail sales fell sharply in April. UK retail sales fell sharply in the year to April, according to the latest monthly CBI Distributive Trades Survey. This follows no change in sales over March. While the earlier timing of Easter this year likely played a role in April's decline, the fall in retail sales was nonetheless greater than expected. Sales are also expected to continue falling in May but at a slower pace. Alpesh Paleja, CBI Lead Economist, said: "April's fall in sales was faster than expected, and retailers aren't overly hopeful about the month ahead." To read the CBI's news release, go to https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/retail-sales-fall-sharply-in-april-cbi-distributive-trades-survey/.

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UK manufacturing sentiment improved in April. The manufacturing sector experienced a boost in sentiment in April, with output expectations reaching their highest point in six months, according to the CBI's latest quarterly Industrial Trends Survey. After a period of strong output declines in the first quarter of 2024, output volumes stabilised in the three months to April. Manufacturers are currently optimistic about the next three months, with expectations for output growth the strongest since October 2023. Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist, observed: "Manufacturers are seeing improved conditions, with sentiment on the rise and expectations for future output growth at their highest in six months." To read the CBI's news release, go to https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/manufacturing-sentiment-improves-in-april-cbi-industrial-trends-survey/.

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Global: Late Payment, Insolvencies & Economy

The global recovery is steady but slow and differs by region. The latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts that the world economy will continue growing at 3.2% during 2024 and 2025. This is an upward revision of 0.1% from the January 2024 WEO Update and 0.3% from the October 2023 WEO, although the pace of expansion remains low by historical standards. A slight acceleration for advanced economies – where growth is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2023 to 1.7 % in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 – will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging markets and developing economies from 4.3% in 2023 to 4.2% in both 2024 and 2025. The 3.1% forecast for global growth five years from now is the lowest in decades. To read the IMF's news release, with a link to the full WEO, go to https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024?cid=ca-com-compd-pubs_belt.

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D&B suggests the worst is behind the European economy. D&B's Global Economic Outlook 2024 forecasts that the worst is behind the European economy, with many factors that subdued growth expected to diminish and likely to ease further throughout the year. Across Europe, GDP growth is projected to accelerate this year, albeit from relatively low bases. However, Germany stands out as an exception and may experience a slight contraction in output, potentially tipping the economy into recession. In contrast, the economies of Italy, France, and Spain are expected to perform relatively better. While growth in the US is anticipated to soften this year, it is still projected to grow by 1.5% in 2024, compared to 0.6% in Germany and 0.9% in the UK, with France expected to grow by 1.2%. To see D&B's Outlook, go to https://www.dnb.co.uk/perspectives/finance-credit-risk/country-risk-global-outlook.html.

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New data indicates that the eurozone has recovered from a shallow recession. ​Eurostat's latest report indicates an upturn in the eurozone's economic fortunes, with GDP expanding by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, marking a significant departure from the shallow recession experienced in the preceding quarters of the previous year. The euro area saw a 0.4% increase in GDP compared to the same period last year, while the broader European Union experienced a 0.5% growth. Among Member States, Ireland led with an impressive 1.1% increase in GDP, followed by Latvia, Lithuania, and Hungary, each recording growth of 0.8%. Sweden was the sole Member State to record a decrease, with a slight contraction of 0.1%. Year-on-year growth rates were positive for nine countries but negative for four. To read Eurostat's news release, go to https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30042024-bp.

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Sluggish growth is delaying economic recovery in Emerging Europe and Central Asia. The World Bank has published its latest Regional Economic Update for Europe and Central Asia region and warns that economic activity in the emerging and developing economies of the Europe and Central Asia region is likely to slow to 2.8% this year following substantial strengthening to 3.3% in 2023. However, a slower-than-expected recovery in key trading partners, especially in the euro area, restrictive monetary policies, and an exacerbation of geopolitical developments could further dampen growth across the region. To read the World Bank's news release, go to https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/development/publication/world-bank-regional-economic-updates.

Additional World Bank Regional Economic Updates are also available for: East Asia and Pacific, Africa, South Asia, Latin American and Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa.

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Steady global growth is expected for 2024 and 2025. According to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook, the global economy is growing at a modest pace, with steady global GDP growth of 3.1% expected in 2024 – the same as the 3.1% in 2023, followed by a slight pick-up to 3.2% in 2025. GDP growth in the US is projected to be 2.6% in 2024 before slowing to 1.8% in 2025. In the euro area, which stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2023, GDP growth is projected at 0.7% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. In the UK, GDP growth will remain sluggish at 0.4% in 2024 before improving to 1.0% in 2025. To access the OECD's Outlook, go to https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/may-2024/.

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Credit Management: Resources

UKEF plans to significantly increase the number of UK SMEs that benefit from its support. UK Export Finance (UKEF) has announced that its 2024-29 Business Plan includes a commitment to helping companies across the UK win over £12.5 billion in new contracts by 2029 and unlock £5 billion of investment into their UK operations. UKEF aims to support 1,000 SMEs a year by 2029. The new plan emphasises the role of greater digitalisation in widening access to finance and insurance – with a fully online insurance service expected in the coming months. The export credit agency also aims to support £10 billion in clean growth financing over the next few years and mobilise a further £10 billion to support businesses in developing markets. For more information, go to https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukef-unveils-plans-to-help-exporters-win-125-billion-in-new-business-by-2029.

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Company Watch has launched a new service, Payment Practises Data, to provide businesses with insights into the payment behaviours of the companies they work with. The platform gathers data daily from around 9,155 of the UK's largest companies reporting their payment practices (with this number set to grow), which is presented in "easily digestible" graphs showing the average days to pay and payment, as well as the payment percentage for all published years. Businesses can also view more information from the latest and previous payment reports to see how many days a company has taken to file their payment data and if they have breached the mandatory 30-day requirement reporting obligation. Recent research by Company Watch highlights the detrimental impact of late payments, with approximately 50,000 business closures attributed to this issue, and an estimated two million UK SMEs suffering negative consequences. Moreover, timely payments to small businesses have the potential to bolster the UK economy by an impressive £2.5 billion annually. To read Company Watch's news release, go to https://blog.companywatch.net/resources/how-business-payment-data-can-help-you-manage-risk.

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Marsh McLennan launches AI-powered solution to transform supply chain risk management. Marsh McLennan has launched Sentrisk, an AI-powered platform with integrated advisory services to help businesses manage global supply chain risk. Sentrisk uses advanced technologies such as supply chain mapping AI and geospatial satellite imaging to map businesses' supply chains and develop risk mitigation, transfer, and management strategies. Sentrisk pinpoints low, medium, and high-risk vulnerabilities down to a site, supplier, or component-specific level. It also provides a comprehensive assessment of supply chain risks, alerts of disruptions near critical assets, and access to risk advisory services from Marsh and Oliver Wyman. Current risks modelled include natural hazards, geopolitical, climate-related, and reputational risks, as well as structural risks like single-supplier dependencies and geographic concentration. To read Marsh's news release, go to https://www.marsh.com/au/about/media/marsh-mclennan-launches-ai-powered-solution-to-transform-supply-chain-risk-management.html.

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Events & Professional Development

The RFIx24 Awards 2024, 22 May. London, Hilton London Canary Wharf.

The BCR RFIx Awards are back for the sixth year of celebrating professional excellence in receivables
and payables finance. The RFIx Awards 2024 looks to acknowledge the players and individuals whose
notable accomplishments are leading the industry towards agile, sustainable growth, innovation and
customer satisfaction.

These prestigious awards are international in scale, and entries are open to all
companies involved in the receivables and payables finance ecosystem, including banks,
non-banks, fintechs, trade credit insurance providers, consultancies, and legal advisors.
Apply for one or more Receivables Finance Industry Awards today, and let us salute your
success: https://bcrpub.com/awards/rfix24-awards.

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TXF Global 2024: Export, Agency & Project Finance,11-12 June. Athens, Divani Caravel

The most distinguished export finance event around returns and this year to Athens! With over 1000 in-person attendees, a stellar speaker list and a networking opportunity that is crucial if you work in this industry. 

Special offers available – email marketing@exilegroup.com to enquire,

For more information go to https://global2024.exilegroup.com/.

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SCHUMANN CONNECT, 26 June. London.
We are pleased to invite you to the SCHUMANN CONNECT event on June 26, 2024 from 5:00 pm. Registration is open from 4:30 pm. The event offers exciting information from the field of brokerage, trade credit and surety insurance solutions and the opportunity to exchange ideas with colleagues from the insurance industry.

Speakers from the following companies have already confirmed their participation:

• Howden

• TMHCC

• TigerRisk Partners

• Bondaval

Topics covered at the event include broker solutions and better conditions for gaining additional reinsurance capacity through software-based best practice solutions.

 

You can register here: https://info.prof-schumann.com/en/registration-schumann-connect.

Participation in the event is free of charge for you.

 

Date and time:

Wednesday, June 26, 2024, starting at 5 p.m.

 

Venue:

Cavendish Venue

1 America Square, 17 Crosswall

London EC3N 2LB

 

Become part of our unique SCHUMANN community and don´t hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.

We look forward to your participation!

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Professional Development

STECIS, the Trade Credit Insurance & Surety Academy endorsed by ICISA, offers a range of
webinars and classroom training courses.

Classroom training courses are organised once or twice per year or on demand, while webinars
are organised multiple times per year or on demand for groups of participants.

The following courses have been planned in Q2 2024*:

• 23 & 24 April: The Surety Bonds Foundation Course

• 23 & 24 April: The Surety Bonds Advanced Course

• 18 & 19 June: The Trade Credit Insurance Foundation Course

• 20 & 21 June: The Trade Credit Insurance Advanced Course.

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In planning: 4 & 5 June: Two-day seminar, Introduction to Trade Credit Insurance. Dubai – United Arab Emirates

* Note: Stecis’ courses will only be executed when enough participants have enlisted.

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Except for the seminar in Dubai, all classroom courses will take place at a location in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. The courses include lunches and a dinner at the end of the first training day. The courses are hosted by very experienced experts from the industry and there is plenty of opportunity for asking questions, discussion and networking. There is also the possibility of arranging in-house training (at your own offices or at a venue of choice) with a tailor-made program based on the training needs of your company.
Detailed information about the webinar and classroom training courses is available on Stecis’ website: www.stecis.org. Also, further information can be obtained by sending an e-mail to info@stecis.org.

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About this month's sponsor: Tinubu

Tinubu is the business facilitator and exchange enabler that delivers fluidity and simplicity to the insurance industry by using the strength of collective performance. 

Our company is an alliance of technology software and insurance expertise offering the best combination to its clients. It covers the entire value chain of credit insurance & surety with one end-to-end platform, connecting every part of your business with one digital highway. Established in 2000 and headquartered in Paris, France, Tinubu is an independent software provider and employs 170 people, located in Paris, London, New York, Orlando, Singapore, and Montreal. Its clients represent 30 of the top 60 Credit & Surety underwriters worldwide. 

 

Our vision: The lifeblood of insurance: Anticipating interactions from the core of the insurance industry. 

Our promise: Multiplying possibilities: Connecting the value chain of insurance.

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