UK: Late Payment & Business Distress​​​​

UK small businesses wait longer for payment as sales growth slows. Xero Small Business Insights data shows the average time UK small businesses waited for invoice payments rose to 29.5 days in the September quarter of 2026, from 28.8 days in the June quarter. Average late payment times also increased to 8.0 days, from 7.6 days, putting renewed pressure on cash flow. The findings, based on anonymised data from 440,000 small businesses, show sales growth slowing to 4.0% year on year, from 5.6% in the preceding quarter. Agriculture sales fell 6.2% year on year, while hospitality and retail recorded increases of just 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, highlighting uneven trading conditions. To read Xero's news release, go to https://www.xero.com/uk/media-releases/uk-xsbi-data-sept-quarter-2026/.

​​

UK overdue invoices exceed 18 million. More than 18 million overdue invoices were recorded across UK businesses in the third quarter of 2026, up 8% year on year, according to R3's latest Business Health report, based on Creditsafe data. The report also recorded 6,939 insolvency-related activities, including administrations and compulsory liquidations, broadly unchanged from the previous quarter, although pressures increased in several sectors. Wholesale and retail cases rose 8% quarter on quarter to 953, while real estate increased 7% to 467 and education 25% to 99. R3 President Sonia Jordan said late payments continue to affect directors' ability to invest, grow and meet financial commitments. To read R3's news release, go to https://www.r3.org.uk/news/pressure-mounts-on-retail-real-estate-and-education-sectors-as-insolvency-activity-levels-increase/.

​

86% of UK SMEs affected by late payments. Capify's Q3 2026 Business Confidence Report, based on a survey of 175 UK SME owners and decision-makers, found that a third reported increasing customer payment delays over the previous year, compared with 38% in Q2. Almost two-thirds said late payments had a significant or some impact on operations, while 86% reported at least a minor impact. Separately, 39% would struggle to pay their next VAT or Corporation Tax bill from available cash if it were due immediately, while 40% found finance or credit difficult to access. One in five identified changes to late-payment regulations as the measure most likely to improve business confidence. To read the full report, go to https://capify.co.uk/business-confidence-survey/#download-report.

Late payment problems worsen for UK SMEs. The Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade's Longitudinal Small Business Survey 2025 finds that 63% of SME employers offering customers trade credit considered late payment a problem, up from 57% in 2024. This equates to 28% of all SME employers, compared with 27% a year earlier. Meanwhile, the proportion offering trade credit fell to 44%, down from 47%. Late payment was identified as an obstacle to business success by 45% of construction SMEs, up from 36%, and 41% of manufacturing SMEs, up from 33%. The findings underline growing pressure on suppliers. To read the government report, go to https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/small-business-survey-2025-businesses-with-employees/longitudinal-small-business-survey-2025-sme-employers-businesses-with-1-to-249-employees.
Licensed under the terms of Open Government Licence v3.0.

​

Late payments are a leading cause of cashflow pressure for UK B2B SMEs. Retail Times reports that research commissioned by eCapital UK found 55% of businesses experiencing cashflow pressures cited late customer payments, ahead of rising operating costs (42%) and higher wage costs or employer taxes (35%). The survey of 500 SME financial decision-makers also found 93% had accepted unfavourable payment terms to secure business, with 35% doing so often. Overall, 39% said cashflow restrictions had prevented growth opportunities in the past year, while 15% reported pressures severe enough to threaten survival. eCapital calls for action on late payments alongside working-capital support. To read Retail Times' article, go to https://retailtimes.co.uk/cash-flow-pressures-holding-back-sme-growth-despite-appetite-to-invest-ecapital-report-finds.

​

UK late payments are concentrated among repeat offenders. Adfin's UK Getting Paid Report, based on paid invoices recorded on its platform between June 2024 and August 2026, found that 34.3% of customer-initiated payments were late, while 65.7% arrived on time or early. Excluding direct debit collections, the median delay was eight days, although 7.1% of late payments were more than 90 days overdue. Late payments were concentrated among repeat offenders. Of customers who had paid the same business at least five times, those paying late on 80% or more occasions accounted for 51.9% of late payments within that group. Adfin cautions that its findings mainly reflect smaller UK businesses, including accountancy practices, rather than the wider economy. To read Adfin's report, go to: https://adfin.com/information/the-uk-getting-paid-report-how-uk-businesses-pay-and-get-paid.

​

Good Business Pays reports that average payment times have more than halved among its 100 most improved UK payers. Its latest ranking shows average payment times falling from 44.4 to 20.9 days, while the proportion of invoices paid late dropped from 58% to 12%. Based on companies' government-reported payment data, the ranking compares each business's first reported year with its most recent. Crown Chicken topped the list, reducing its late-payment rate from 98% to 18% and average payment time from 42.5 to 11.5 days. Fourth-placed FCB Europe cut its average payment time from 135 to 19 days. Good Business Pays says these improvements were made voluntarily, before proposed tougher legislation. To read Good Business Pays' report, go to: https://goodbusinesspays.com/posts/late-payment-times-more-than-halved-as-good-business-pays-marks-six-years-of-measuring-the-uks-biggest-companies/

​

UK Small Business Commissioner recovers over £1 million in overdue payments in six months. The Office of the Small Business Commissioner (OSBC) has helped UK small businesses recover more than £1 million in overdue payments in the first half of the 2026/27 financial year, after recovering more than £1.5 million throughout 2025/26. The payments were secured through the OSBC's enquiry service, which helps small businesses resolve outstanding payment disputes with larger customers. Small Business Commissioner Emma Jones highlighted the continuing impact of late payments, which can place considerable pressure on cash flow, divert resources from business development and restrict growth. The announcement comes as the Commercial Payments Bill progresses through Parliament, proposing a 60-day maximum payment period, mandatory late-payment interest and stronger enforcement powers for the Commissioner. To read the OSBC announcement, go to https://www.smallbusinesscommissioner.gov.uk/1-5-million-recovered-for-small-businesses-by-small-business-commissioner-2/

Licensed under the terms of Open Government Licence v3.0.
 

UK Government declines to commit to 30-day payment terms. The UK Government has declined to commit to introducing 30-day payment terms across the economy by the end of this Parliament, despite pressure from MPs to strengthen protections for small businesses. In its latest response to the House of Commons Business, Innovation, Science and Trade Committee, the Government reaffirmed its commitment to the Commercial Payments Bill, which proposes mandatory interest on overdue payments and stronger enforcement powers for the Small Business Commissioner, including financial penalties for persistent poor payment practices. However, the Bill's proposed 60-day maximum payment period, subject to limited exemptions, falls short of the Committee's recommendations. To read the House of Commons Committee's news release, go to https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/365/business-innovation-science-and-trade-committee/news/218501/small-business-ministers-make-welcome-concessions-to-mps-but-budget-must-tackle-costs-holding-firms-back.
Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0.

​

Commercial Payments Bill clears the House of Lords. The Commercial Payments Bill completed its third reading in the House of Lords on 20 October, with no amendments proposed ahead of the final stage. The proposed legislation aims to strengthen UK rules on late commercial payments, including expanding the Small Business Commissioner's powers to resolve payment disputes and banning retention clauses in the construction sector. The Bill previously underwent detailed scrutiny at committee stage in July and report stage in September. The Bill now passes to the House of Commons for further scrutiny and will require further parliamentary approval and Royal Assent before becoming law. To read the UK Parliament announcement, go to https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2026/october-2026/lords-completes-examination-of-commercial-payments-bill/.
Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0
 

Federal Management identifies a debt recovery gap in proposed payment reforms. Federal Management has warned that the proposed Commercial Payments Bill will not resolve cases where customers stop communicating. The Bill would generally cap commercial payment terms at 60 days, subject to limited exemptions, or 30 days for public authorities, and require late-payment interest of eight percentage points above the Bank of England base rate. Managing Director Marc Curtis-Smith welcomed the reforms but warned that statutory rights offer limited protection when debtors disengage. To read Federal Management's full news release, go to https://www.eznewswire.com/newsroom/federal-management-commercial-payments-bill-late-payers.

​

UK profit warnings reach their highest level in nearly two years. EY-Parthenon reports that UK-listed companies issued 65 profit warnings in the third quarter of 2026, up from 59 in Q2 and the highest quarterly total since Q4 2024. Policy change and geopolitical uncertainty remained the leading cause overall, cited in 54% of warnings, while 38% specifically referenced the Middle East conflict. Rising costs were cited in 35% of warnings, the highest proportion since Q4 2022. Household Goods and Home Construction recorded the most warnings, with eight, including six from listed housebuilders. EY also found that 17% of UK-listed companies had issued at least one profit warning during the previous 12 months. To read EY's news release, go to https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2026/10/uk-profit-warnings-q3-2026/.

​

UK business distress reaches a record high. BTG's latest Red Flag Alert research shows a record 738,144 UK businesses experienced 'significant' financial distress in Q3 2026, up 1.6% year-on-year. Distress increased in 20 of the 22 sectors monitored, with the largest numbers in support services (118,695), construction (108,340), and real estate and property services (99,908). However, the number of businesses experiencing more severe 'critical' distress fell by 20.7% to 44,033. Separately, HMRC data obtained by BTG revealed £27.3 billion in outstanding VAT, Corporation Tax and PAYE arrears as of 31 August 2026. BTG warns that mounting costs, limited financial headroom and potential creditor enforcement could intensify pressure on struggling businesses, particularly those already carrying substantial overdue tax liabilities. To read BTG's news release, go to https://www.btguk.com/news/red-flag-alert-q3-2026-figures-released.


UK: Insolvencies

​Company insolvencies in England and Wales fall 5% year on year. The Insolvency Service recorded 1,882 company insolvencies in September 2026, down 4% from August and 5% from September 2025. Creditors' voluntary liquidations accounted for 1,420 cases, followed by 341 compulsory liquidations, 102 administrations and 19 company voluntary arrangements. Despite the overall decline, compulsory liquidations increased by 25% compared with September 2025, while administrations fell by 20%. The rolling company insolvency rate stood at 49.9 per 10,000 companies in the 12 months to September, equivalent to approximately one in 200. Scotland, meanwhile, recorded 117 company insolvencies, up 14% year on year. To read the Insolvency Service's report, go to https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/company-insolvencies-september-2026/commentary-company-insolvency-statistics-september-2026.
Licensed under the terms of Open Government Licence v3.0.

​​

UK construction insolvencies fall by 21%, but financial distress persists. New research by Red Flag Alert reports 304 construction insolvencies in September 2026, down 21% year on year. However, it cautions that the reduction largely reflects seasonal patterns rather than a sustained recovery. The picture varied regionally, with the North West recording a 58% decrease, while Scotland's total increased from five to eight. Evidence of financial distress was also apparent in the companies that failed. According to Red Flag Alert, 38% had county court judgments against them, totalling £2.26 million, of which £1.9 million remained unpaid at insolvency. To read Red Flag Alert's news release, go to https://www.redflagalert.com/articles/construction-insolvency-data-september-2026.

​

UK business insolvencies rose 14% in October compared with September. Creditsafe recorded 2,520 business insolvencies across the UK in October 2026, up 14.29% on September and 0.12% on October 2025. Across the first ten months of 2026, 23,465 businesses entered insolvency, 1.68% fewer than in the corresponding period last year. Construction had the highest October total (406), followed by accommodation and food services (323) and wholesale and retail (316). Despite the overall year-to-date decline, insolvencies in financial and insurance activities rose by almost 27%, while real estate increased by 22%. Creditsafe highlights pressure from rising costs, borrowing, supply-chain disruption and weak consumer demand. It also points to geopolitical tensions and thin margins business margins. To read Creditsafe's report, go to https://www.creditsafe.com/gb/en/blog/reports/insolvencies.html.
 

Allianz Trade forecasts a further decline in UK business insolvencies, but pressures persist. In its Global Insolvencies Outlook 2028, Allianz Trade expects UK insolvencies to fall by 4% to 25,600 in 2026, ending five consecutive years of increases, before declining a further 3% to around 24,800 in 2027. However, this would still leave insolvencies 21% above their 2016–19 average. The report attributes continued pressure on UK firms due to tighter financial conditions, high inflation and weak supply-side performance. Construction, real estate, trade, hospitality and accommodation remain particularly exposed. Although insolvency numbers are forecast to decline again in 2028, Allianz Trade's outlook points to gradual stabilisation rather than a return to pre-pandemic conditions. It also estimates that 213,000 UK jobs could be directly at risk from insolvencies across 2026 and 2027. To read Allianz Trade's news release, with a link to the full report, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_global/news-insights/economic-insights/Global-Insolvencies-Outlook-2026-28.html. 

​
Connected-party pre-pack buyers more likely to become insolvent. Research by Turnstone Intelligence, commissioned by The Guardian, has found that businesses purchasing assets through connected-party pre-pack sales face a significantly higher risk of subsequent insolvency. Examining 544 pre-pack sales among 1,738 administrations in England and Wales in 2019, Turnstone found that 44% of matched buyers connected to the original business had entered insolvency by July 2026, compared with 26% of unconnected buyers. Unsecured creditors also fared worse, recovering an average of just 1.6p in the pound from connected sales involving deferred payments, compared with 7.9p from unconnected sales, where recovery reports were available. Turnstone emphasises that the findings demonstrate association rather than causation and relate to transactions predating the additional safeguards introduced in 2021. To read the research, go to https://turnstoneintelligence.com/research/connected-pre-pack-buyer-failures/.

​​​

​​​​​

UK & Republic of Ireland Economy

UK GDP edges up by 0.1% in August 2026. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that UK GDP grew by 0.1% in August, following increases of 0.4% in both July and June. Monthly growth was driven by a 0.8% rise in production, including a 1.2% increase in manufacturing, while services output was unchanged and construction fell by 0.2%. Over the three months to August, GDP rose 0.7%, supported by 0.9% growth in services. Production declined by 0.2% over the period, while construction contracted by 1.0%. UK GDP was 1.8% higher than in the same three months of 2025. To read the ONS report, go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/august2026.
Licensed under the terms of Open Government Licence v3.0.

 

UK businesses' growth expectations are at their least pessimistic in two years. The CBI's October Growth Indicator shows businesses expect activity to decline over the next three months, although the overall weighted balance improved to -8%. Distribution firms reported a balance of -17%, their least negative outlook for sales in two years, while manufacturers expect output to stabilise (-1%). Business and professional services (-5%) and consumer services (-16%) anticipate declines, albeit smaller than their average expectations so far this year. CBI Deputy Chief Economist Alpesh Paleja said firmer order books and new contracts indicate some resilience, but cautious consumers, delayed investment and persistent cost pressures continue to constrain growth. To read the CBI's report, go to https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/growth-outlook-least-pessimistic-in-two-years-cbi-growth-indicator/.

Widespread AI adoption could boost UK GDP by more than 10% by 2031. New analysis for the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) suggests that widespread AI adoption could make UK GDP more than 10% higher by the end of 2031 than it would otherwise be. Under this higher-adoption scenario, AI would increase productivity by 57% across 12% of work tasks by 2030. A more moderate scenario, involving a 35% productivity improvement across 4% of tasks, would increase GDP by around 2%. The findings accompany the BCC's new publication, How the UK Can Become an AI Adoption Superpower, produced in partnership with BDO. To read the BCC's new release, with a link to the full report, go to https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2026/11/wider-ai-adoption-could-boost-gdp-by-10/.
 

UK mid-market strengthens international reach despite global uncertainty. UK mid-market businesses (£10m–£500m revenue) increased overseas revenues by 6% to £190 billion over the last year, according to BDO, despite supply-chain disruption and economic uncertainty. Overseas revenues grew at almost twice the rate recorded by smaller businesses, accounting for 8% of total mid-market turnover. Overall turnover rose 3% to £2.44 trillion. London remained the largest contributor, generating £62.7 billion following 10% growth, while the South West recorded a 10% increase, reaching £8.2 billion. BDO's Mid-Market Tracker found that one-fifth of 500 surveyed mid-market decision-makers plan significant investment in international expansion during the next 12 months. To read BDO's news release, go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2026/mid-market-defies-global-headwinds-as-overseas-revenues-rise-to-%C2%A3190bn.

​

UK exports rise in three months to August, driven by services growth. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), total UK exports of goods and services increased by £1.3 billion (0.5%) to £242.5 billion in the three months to August 2026, compared with the previous three-month period. Services exports led the growth, rising by £1.9 billion (1.4%) to £137.9 billion, while goods exports declined by £0.5 billion (0.5%). Looking at August alone, goods exports fell by £1.1 billion (3.1%), reflecting a 7.3% decline in exports to the EU, partially offset by a 0.9% increase in exports to non-EU countries. Meanwhile, services exports increased by an estimated 0.4% during the month. To read the ONS report, go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/august2026.

Licensed under the terms of Open Government Licence v3.0.
 

​Retail sales decline eases, but orders to suppliers remain weak. UK retailers reported their slowest annual decline in sales volumes for 18 months in October, according to the CBI's Distributive Trades Survey. The weighted balance improved to -10% from -55% in September, while retailers judged sales broadly average for the time of year for the first time since May 2024. However, retailers' orders to suppliers continued to fall sharply, although the balance improved to -36% from -62% the previous month. Online sales remained weak, with a balance of -39%. Retailers expect sales volumes to decline again in November and anticipate below-average trading for the time of year, despite the slower contraction. The CBI cited cautious household spending and higher fuel costs as continuing pressures on retailers, wholesalers and motor traders. To read the CBI's news release, go to https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/retail-sales-decline-at-slowest-pace-in-18-months-cbi-distributive-trades-survey/.

​

Discretionary UK retail sales record strongest growth since January 2025, but underlying conditions remain challenging. According to BDO's latest High Street Sales Tracker, like-for-like retail sales across discretionary categories increased by 4.6% in October compared with the same month last year, marking their strongest performance since January 2025. Online sales drove the improvement, rising 10.1%, while high street sales increased by just 2.2%, below the rate of inflation. October was only the third month in 2026 when retail sales growth outpaced inflation. Sophie Michael, Head of Retail and Wholesale at BDO, said retailers would welcome the improvement but cautioned against reading too much into a single month's performance. To read BDO's news release, go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2026/october-delivers-strongest-retail-sales-growth-since-january-2025.

​

UK business confidence rebounds despite persistent cost pressures. Lloyds Bank's October Business Barometer found confidence rose six points to 47%, above its long-term average of 30%. Optimism about the wider economy increased nine points to 40%, while firms' own trading outlook climbed five points to 55%. Nearly two-thirds (63%) expect business activity to grow over the next year, supported by stronger customer demand and technology investment. However, 55% expect to raise prices over the coming 12 months, up three points, with continuing cost pressures a key factor. Confidence among smaller firms with turnover below £5m rose eight points to 47%, while internationally trading businesses reported higher confidence than domestic-only operators. To read Lloyds Bank's Business Barometer news release, go to https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/press-releases/2026/lloyds/business-confidence-rises-economic-optimism-increases.html.

​

UK CFOs prioritise cost reduction as economic and political uncertainty weighs on business confidence. Deloitte's Q3 2026 CFO Survey found that domestic economic and political uncertainty was considered the greatest constraint on UK competitiveness, followed by regulation and taxation. Geopolitical risks remained the biggest external concern, while fears of further interest rate rises increased. Against this backdrop, 68% of CFOs identified cost reduction as a strong priority for the next 12 months, up from 53% in Q2. Meanwhile, the proportion prioritising new products and services fell from 37% to 27%, while those favouring acquisitions declined from 22% to 16%. CFOs also raised their inflation expectations for the coming year from 3.0% to 3.4%. To read Deloitte's news release, go to https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/about/press-room/deloitte-cfo-survey-quater-three-2026-economic-and-political-uncertainty.html.

​​

UK business leaders' confidence in economic growth falls despite optimism about company prospects. KPMG's 2026 CEO Outlook reveals that confidence in the UK's economic growth prospects has fallen sharply, with 64% of UK chief executives expressing confidence, down from 79% in 2025. Confidence in global economic growth also weakened, declining to 63% from 65%. However, 86% of UK CEOs remain confident about their own companies' growth prospects over the next three years, up from 74% last year, while 69% expect profits to increase by more than 2.5%. Meanwhile, 83% plan to make acquisitions, and 82% identify AI as a top investment priority over the next three years. To read KPMG's news release, go to https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2026/10/kpmg-ceo-outlook-uk-2026.html.

​Atradius highlights continued pressure on UK construction, retail and metals. Its Q4 2026 Industry Highlights report assesses nine UK sectors, identifying weak demand and rising costs among key challenges. Atradius expects insolvency risk to remain elevated in housebuilding and groundworks, with construction activity constrained by project delays and limited new starts. It expects difficult conditions in metals to persist into 2027, while retailers face weak consumer confidence, rising employment costs and a challenging Christmas trading period. In contrast, the credit insurer maintains a positive outlook and supportive underwriting stance towards ICT, citing demand linked to AI, cloud migration and cybersecurity. It also identifies selective opportunities in parts of the engineering sector. To read Atradius' news release, with a link to the full report, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/reports/atradius-industry-highlights-2026-q4.
 

UK business creations fell as closures also declined in the third quarter. The Office for National Statistics reports that 69,895 UK businesses were added to the Inter-Departmental Business Register in July–September 2026, down 3.5% on the same quarter last year. Creations fell in 11 of 16 main industry groups, with health and social care down 26.4% and accommodation and food services down 16.2%. Meanwhile, 63,035 businesses were removed from the register, a 1.1% annual decrease. Closures declined in eight industry groups, including a 16.7% fall in business administration and support services. Recorded business additions outnumbered removals by 6,860. The figures are official statistics in development and record business-register changes rather than insolvencies. To read the ONS' news release, go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/bulletins/businessdemographyquarterlyexperimentalstatisticsuk/latest.

Licensed under the terms of Open Government Licence v3.0.​​​​

​​​

​​​​​

​Global: Late Payment, Insolvencies & Economy
Dun & Bradstreet warns of growing pressure on business cash flow and payment performance. In its Global Economic Outlook Q4 2026, Dun & Bradstreet forecasts global GDP growth will slow to 2.4% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2025, as businesses face tighter financing conditions, rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty. The report warns that elevated borrowing costs are increasing refinancing pressures, particularly for businesses with significant debt, high inventory requirements or lengthy payment cycles. These pressures are expected to contribute to slower payments, reduced investment and tighter credit conditions. Meanwhile, supply chain risks are becoming increasingly complex, with sanctions, trade restrictions and regulatory requirements creating additional challenges. To read the report, go to https://www.dnb.com/en-us/reports/global-economic-outlook-report.html.

Atradius forecasts global insolvencies to rise 5% in 2026 before easing in 2027. Atradius expects global insolvencies to decline by 4% in 2027, with signs of normalisation emerging in the second half of the year. However, this improvement is not expected to reflect a significant recovery in business conditions. Instead, Atradius anticipates that many of the most vulnerable firms will have left the market by early 2027, while surviving businesses adapt their costs, financing and pricing. Regionally, insolvencies are forecast to fall by 5% in Europe and Asia-Pacific and by 3% in North America in 2027. UK insolvencies are expected to remain near historically high levels, while US insolvencies should decline as businesses adjust and economic growth remains resilient. To read Atradius' forecast, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/news/untitledrelief-from-insolvency-pressures-unlikely-before-h2-2027.
 

Eurozone growth slows to 0.4% as French economy contracts. Eurostat's preliminary estimate shows euro area GDP expanded 0.4% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 0.6% in the second quarter. Growth across the EU slowed from 0.7% to 0.5%. Compared with the same quarter a year earlier, output rose 1.3% in the euro area and 1.5% across the EU. Ireland recorded the strongest quarterly growth among reporting countries at 5.5%, while Lithuania contracted 1.0% and France 0.1%. Germany expanded 0.2%, Spain 0.6%, and Italy was unchanged. Eurostat warns the flash estimates rely on incomplete data and may be revised. Source: Eurostat, Preliminary flash estimate for the third quarter of 2026, 30 October 2026. Independently summarised by Credit Management News; Eurostat is not responsible for this summary. Read the original release at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30102026-ap
 

Coface forecasts global GDP growth of 2.5% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027. Coface expects the global economy to remain broadly resilient, supported partly by AI-related investment, despite mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainty. However, its latest Risk Review warns that the prolonged Middle East conflict is placing renewed pressure on commodity prices, financial conditions and global economic activity. With oil prices exceeding $100 a barrel in September, Coface estimates the conflict will reduce global growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 2027, while also increasing the risk of another inflation shock. Reflecting these heightened risks, Coface has downgraded its country risk assessments for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, alongside agri-food sector downgrades in six countries. To read Coface's news release, which links to the full report, go to https://www.coface.com/news-economy-and-insights/risk-review-october-2026-rates-against-the-machine.

​​

Atradius warns global sector credit risks are deteriorating. Atradius' Q4 2026 industry outlook places 217 of 555 sector-market assessments in its high-risk category, up 23 from January. Of the remainder, 199 are rated moderate risk and 139 low risk. Construction, metals and steel, and textiles face the weakest outlooks, while food, pharmaceuticals, financial services, electronics/ICT and agriculture fare better. In Europe, Atradius has downgraded French metals and steel, Spanish paper and transport, and Hungarian agriculture and food since July. It expects credit insurance claims in Hungary's agricultural sector to increase as drought, high costs and falling output squeeze margins. The insurer emphasises that individual buyers, rather than entire sectors, determine credit risk. To read Atradius' Q4 industry outlook, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/news/performance-outlook-for-over-500-industries-globally-q4-2026.

​

Allianz Trade forecasts further rises in global business insolvencies through 2027. Its latest Insolvency Report predicts a 5% increase in 2026 and a further 1% in 2027, following 6% growth in 2025. It cites underperforming economic growth, high energy costs and prolonged elevated interest rates as key pressures on businesses. The insurer estimates that approximately 2.7 million jobs are directly at risk in 2026 and 2027, with Europe accounting for almost 60%. Construction, retail and services are the most exposed sectors. While AI adoption is not yet correlated with overall insolvency trends, Allianz Trade identifies potential risks in smaller, less diversified markets where adoption varies across businesses. To read Allianz Trade's news release, with a link to the full report, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_global/news-insights/news/insolvency-report-271026.html.
 

World Bank warns global commodity prices will surge 23% in 2026. The World Bank forecasts a 23% rise in global commodity prices this year as conflict, disrupted shipments and El Niño threaten supplies. Energy prices are expected to climb 32%, with Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel, compared with $69 in 2025. Food commodities are projected to increase about 10% this year and a further 7% in 2027, while fertiliser and metals prices are forecast to rise 14% and 25% respectively. The Bank warns that higher energy costs and trade disruption could fuel inflation and weaken economic growth. Overall commodity prices are expected to ease 7% in 2027, assuming no major escalation of conflicts. To read the World Bank's news release, go to https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/10/28/commodity-markets-outlook-october-2026.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​

​​​​Credit Management News & Resources

​More than 800 UK businesses have been recognised under the Fair Payment Code. The Small Business Commissioner recently announced that more than 800 UK businesses have received awards under the government-backed Fair Payment Code. The voluntary scheme recognises companies committed to paying suppliers promptly. Gold status requires at least 95% of all invoices to be paid within 30 days, while Silver requires 95% within 60 days, including 95% of invoices to small businesses within 30 days. Bronze requires 95% of invoices to be paid within 60 days. The Commissioner said late payments cost the UK economy almost £11 billion annually and contribute to 38 business closures a day. The awards come as the UK Government prepares further late-payment reforms to improve payment practices. To read the Fair Payment Code's news release, go to https://www.smallbusinesscommissioner.gov.uk/fpc/uk-government-awards-more-than-800-businesses-on-the-fair-payment-code/.
 

Paragon Credit Management offers a free late-payment interest calculator. Paragon Credit Management has published an online calculator to help UK businesses estimate statutory interest and fixed compensation on overdue business-to-business invoices. Users can enter the invoice amount, payment terms and relevant dates, with the option to adjust the Bank of England base rate used. The tool estimates interest under the Late Payment of Commercial Debts (Interest) Act 1998 and shows fixed compensation of £40, £70 or £100, depending on the size of the debt. Paragon cautions that calculations are estimates, exclude additional recovery costs and may not apply where a contract specifies a different interest rate. To use the calculator, go to https://paragoncm.co.uk/2026/10/10/late-payment-interest-calculator-for-uk-businesses/.
 

Clarity Finance Group provides a free credit control toolkit for businesses. Clarity Finance Group offers five free online resources designed to help businesses review their credit control procedures and manage overdue invoices. Its toolkit includes a debtor days calculator, late-payment interest calculator, credit control checklist and payment reminder email templates. A 12-question self-audit assesses practices including payment terms, invoice follow-ups, promised payment dates, aged debt reviews and escalation procedures. Clarity also provides practical guides covering cash flow, debtor days and invoice chasing. The resources are designed to help businesses identify weaknesses in their existing processes and establish more consistent approaches to managing outstanding payments. To access Clarity's free resources, go to https://www.clarityfinancegroup.co.uk/resources/.


 

Events & Professional Development​​

​Trade Credit Insurance Industry Dinner 2026 – Hosted by SCHUMANN, London. 12 November 2026
An Evening of Inspiration, Networking & Meaningful Impact
On Thursday, 12th November 2026, SCHUMANN is delighted to host this year’s annual Trade Credit Insurance
Industry Dinner 2026 – an exclusive event to celebrate industry achievements, strengthen professional relationships, and support a charitable cause.
Venue: City Central at the HAC – a premier venue in the City of London, providing an elegant setting for an exceptional evening.
Time: 6:30 PM – 1:00 AM

Evening Highlights:

• Live music – An evening enriched by captivating performances

• Gourmet dining & drinks – A premium menu with soft and alcoholic beverages included

• Dress code: Black Tie – Formal attire recommended for an evening of sophistication

An Evening with Purpose:
The event will support Akwaaba Volunteers, a UK-registered charity dedicated to enhancing the lives of
disadvantaged children in Accra, Ghana, through education, care, and community support. Participation in the
dinner contributes to this meaningful initiative.

Tickets are now available. Further details can be found on the event page.
Secure your seat and join this special evening in the heart of London.

https://order.awesome-events.co.uk/events/trade-credit-insurance-industry-dinner-2026.

​

 

GTR Africa 2026, London.12 November 2026.
Returning on November 12, 2026, GTR Africa London is thrilled to convene the UK’s premier gathering once again for Africa-focused trade, export and infrastructure financing.

Welcoming over 500 delegates from leading banks, corporates and financial institutions, and providing more than three hours of dedicated networking time, the event serves as a vital meeting point for forging new partnerships and strengthening existing relationships across the African trade landscape.

With insights from more than 50 expert speakers, attendees can expect high-level discussions on African trade shifts, corporate finance trends, and infrastructure investment priorities.

GTR looks forward to welcoming you for another insightful and engaging conference!

For more information, go to https://www.gtreview.com/events/europe/gtr-africa-2026-london/#overview.

 

​

GTR Nordics 2026, Stockholm. 25 November 2026.
Firmly established as the region’s leading conference for trade, export and supply chain finance, we are pleased to announce that GTR Nordics will return to Stockholm on November 25, 2026!
Providing an exceptional platform for renewing and expanding business connections, this flagship gathering brings together 700 influential representatives from corporate, financial, fintech and ECA communities for unrivalled networking opportunities. Connect with more than 30 leading industry exhibitors to strengthen your market presence, and benefit from a carefully curated programme featuring insights from over 55 expert speakers. Gain essential knowledge and first-hand perspectives on the latest trends and developments shaping Nordic trade. The GTR team look forward to seeing you there!

For more information, go to https://www.gtreview.com/events/europe/gtr-nordics-2026-stockholm/#overview.

​

​

GTR US 2026, New York. 1 December 2026.
GTR will return to Manhattan on December 1 for GTR US 2026!

The leading event for the US trade and working capital financing community will once again bring together over 500 industry leaders to explore business-critical market trends and opportunities, featuring a highly focused one-day agenda packed with thought-provoking conversations, debate-driven discussions and practical guidance on the issues shaping the industry.

Providing unmatched networking opportunities with leading industry representatives and exhibitors, the event offers the ideal platform to reconnect with peers, forge new business relationships and gain critical insights into the evolving US trade and working capital financing landscape. We look forward to seeing you there.
For more information, go to https://www.gtreview.com/events/americas/gtr-us-2026-new-york/#overview.

​​​

​​​

​​​

About TRUST™​
TRUST is FGI Tech's proprietary credit insurance management platform, designed to simplify policy administration, improve visibility and help organisations get more value from their credit insurance programs.
Built for insurance brokers, financial institutions and corporates, TRUST brings policy information, credit limits, compliance requirements and key deadlines into one centralised platform. By consolidating information across multiple insurance carriers, TRUST helps users monitor coverage, track changes and manage credit insurance obligations with greater clarity and efficiency.
Through automated data ingestion, integrated risk information, customisable dashboards and timely alerts, TRUST reduces the need for manual tracking and fragmented workflows. Users can access a consolidated view of their credit insurance programs, monitor compliance and stay informed of important policy milestones, including claim deadlines.
For organisations managing complex receivables portfolios or supporting multiple clients and policies, TRUST provides a more structured approach to credit insurance management. Its carrier-agnostic design supports visibility across insurance relationships, helping teams coordinate information and make more informed decisions.
Developed by FGI Tech, TRUST combines technology and credit insurance expertise to help organisations streamline day-to-day administration and strengthen oversight of their programs.