Six in 10 UK small businesses say late payments prevent them from reaching their full potential. A new GoCardless report, commissioned by the Federation of Small Businesses, highlights the growing issue of late payments for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in the UK. A survey of over 2,000 SMBs found that 45% have experienced more late payments than last year, with 50% expecting the problem to worsen over the next 12 months. The survey also found that late payments impact business growth, cash flow, and mental well-being, with 52% forfeiting late payments up to 10 times a year. Furthermore, 36% of SMBs say that late incoming payments affect their ability to pay their own suppliers on time, and 61% of small businesses say late payments are holding back their business from achieving its full potential. To read GoCardless' news release, go to https://gocardless.com/blog/gocardless-fsb-late-payments-report-2025/.

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11.2% of UK companies are in distress. The latest Weil European Distress Index (WEDI) indicates that business distress levels in the UK have seen particularly sharp increases compared to most of Europe, with levels at their highest since September 2023. The latest data shows that 11.2% of UK companies are in distress, compared to 9.8% the previous year, and the proportion of UK businesses with insufficient liquidity and/or inadequate capital structures (lacking robustness) has risen to 34.4% from 30.4% in 2023, while those with weak earnings or profitability accounted for 15.5% of all companies. The Index also notes that the outlook for the UK has worsened since the last report, with uncertainty remaining a key challenge. Economic forecasts, including those from the Bank of England, have grown increasingly pessimistic, further weighing on confidence and stability. To read the Index, go to https://www.weil.com/articles/the-weil-european-distress-index.

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Optimism in fewer profit warnings, but winding-up petitions raise concerns. InfolinkGazette's Quarterly Report – Q1 2025 reveals that  Q1 2025 saw more than 10% (107) fewer profit warnings than in Q4 2024 and 6% fewer compared to the same period last year. In addition, compared to the corresponding quarter a year ago, companies citing a material uncertainty or going concern have also reduced by 5% (although it should be noted that Q1 2024's figure was the highest InfolinkGazette had seen). Tech City Labs also recorded a 23% decrease (2479)  in initial stage winding up petitions compared to Q4 2024. S. Kaler, Head of Data for InfolinkGazette at Tech City Labs, commented that  the decrease in petitions seems optimistic "until you consider that Winding up petitions have gone up by over 105% in comparison to the preceding quarter." He continued: "There's a lot going on globally that is affecting UK business too, so while Q1 2025 numbers aren't quite as poor overall as Q4 2024, the outlook for the next few months remains serious." To read Tech City Labs' new release, go to https://www.techcitylabs.com/resources.

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UK compulsory liquidations in February were at their highest level in over five years. The latest UK insolvency data has shown that corporate insolvencies increased by 2.9% in February 2025 to a total of 2,035 compared to January 2025's total, and decreased by 7% compared to February 2024's figure of 2,188. Tom Russell, Vice President of R3, commented: "The monthly increase in corporate insolvencies is driven by a rise in Compulsory Liquidations, which are at their highest level in more than five years, while the year-on-year reduction is due to a fall in Creditors' Voluntary Liquidations (CVLs) and Administrations. Compulsory liquidations are often initiated by HM Revenue and Customs or local authorities as a measure of last resort, and the increase indicates a toughening of the position towards debts owed by companies to the public sector and the ongoing efforts of government to help balance their books." To read R3's news release, go to https://www.r3.org.uk/press-policy-and-research/news/more/32392/page/1//.

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UK business insolvencies begin to slow down after a record high. Allianz Trade's latest Global Insolvency Report reveals that the UK has seen a promising shift in business insolvencies, marking the first year-on-year decrease in three years. According to Allianz Trade's research, the UK registered 26,708 insolvency cases in 2024, a 5% reduction from the previous year. This decline follows significant rises, which brought insolvencies to a 10-year record high in 2023. However, Allianz Trade also warns that the UK's growth momentum is unlikely to recover significantly before 2026. Consequently, a mild decrease in UK insolvencies of 3% is anticipated in 2025, reducing cases to 25,900, followed by a larger relief in 2026 with a 7% drop to 24,000 cases. In contrast, global business insolvencies are expected to rise by 6% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, following a 10% increase in 2024. To read Allianz Trade's report, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_GB/insights/economic-research/uk-business-insolvencies-begin-slow-descent-after-record-high.html.

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​​​​​UK Economy

OBR halves UK growth forecast to 1% for 2025. The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility has advised that it now expects real GDP growth of 1.0% this year—half the rate in its October forecast—before it recovers to average around 1.75% over the rest of the decade. The OBR notes that, while the UK Government's planning reforms deliver a modest boost to the level of potential output of 0.2% in 2029, its cumulative growth between 2023 and 2029 is still 0.5% lower than projected in October, and the level of productivity is over 1% lower. However, if the UK economy continues to track its recent trend, the OBR warns that output could be 3.2% lower and the current budget could be 1.4% of GDP in deficit by the decade's end. And if global trade disputes escalate to include 20% rises in tariffs between the US and the rest of the world, this could reduce UK GDP by a peak of 1%. To read the OBR's news release, with links to its full report, go to https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/.
Licensed under the terms of Open Government. Licence v3.0.

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Annual UK GDP in 2024 is now estimated to have increased by 1.1%. The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data estimates that UK real GDP increased by 0.1% in Quarter 42024, unrevised from the ONS' first estimate. Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.5% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Looking at the quarters open to revision, real GDP growth is unrevised in five of the eight quarters compared with the first estimate, with growth in Quarter 4 2023 to Quarter 2 2024 each revised up 0.1%. Real annual GDP in 2024 is now estimated to have increased by 1.1%, revised up from the first estimated increase of 0.9%; this follows an unrevised increase of 0.4% in 2023. To read the ONS' news release, go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/octobertodecember2024.

Licensed under the terms of Open Government. Licence v3.0.

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S&P Global forecasts 0.8% growth for the UK economy in 2025. S&P Global has revised its expectation for UK economic growth down this year from 1.5% to 0.8% on the back of inflationary pressures, uncertainty over external demand, and tighter monetary policy. UK GDP expanded by 0.9% in 2024, reflecting strong momentum in the year's first half but stagnated in the second half. S&P Global also notes that a loss of cost competitiveness and a challenging global environment have hit exporters and manufacturers hard in recent years, and this is set to continue. However, on the upside, S&P Global predicts that many of the constraints to growth in 2025 should ease in 2026, helping the UK economy bounce back unless risks to growth materialise. To read S&P's news release, go to https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/250325-economic-research-u-k-economic-outlook-q2-2025-recovery-in-consumption-slows-as-inflationary-pressure-retur-13450684.

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The UK economy shrank unexpectedly in January. Recent Office for National Statistics (ONS) analysis estimates that monthly GDP fell by 0.1% in January 2025, mainly caused by a fall in the production sector, after growth of 0.4% in December 2024. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to January 2025, compared with the three months to October 2024. Services grew by 0.4% over this three-month period, while production fell by 0.9% and construction grew by 0.4%. Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in the three months to January 2025, compared with the three months to January 2024. Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.0% higher in January 2025. To read the ONS' news release, go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/january2025
Licensed under the terms of Open Government. Licence v3.0.

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Trade tensions and Eurozone weakness cloud the UK's economic outlook. A new UK Economic Conditions report by Tokio Marine HCC notes that the UK's 2025 growth outlook remains disappointing, as trade tensions with the US escalate and the eurozone's weak performance, especially in Germany, impacts UK trade. In January, the OECD and the IMF projected real GDP growth in the UK at 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively, but the Bank of England halved its forecast to 0.8% in February. Meanwhile, Consensus Economics, which aggregates projections from various forecasters, currently expects 1.4% growth, though risks remain tilted towards the downside. The potential for increased US tariffs on British exports, which accounted for 22% of UK exports in 2023, poses a significant risk, though services (making up 70% of UK exports to the US) may be less affected. While business failures in the UK dropped by 5% in 2024, insolvencies remain above pre-COVID levels, with 23,880 failures. To read Tokio Marine HCC's full news release, go to https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-economic-conditions-report-march-2025.

Modest UK Growth, but the outlook is clouded by risk. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's (NIESR) latest UK GDP tracker has found that the outturn for month-on-month GDP growth performed worse than projected—a contraction of 0.1% in January—primarily driven by a notable contraction in the Production sector. NIESR notes that, as expected, UK economic momentum has been losing steam following the strong recovery in the first half of last year, followed by a lacklustre performance in the second half of 2024. As a result, NIESR now projects that UK GDP will expand by 0.3% in Q1 2025, with growth primarily driven by the Services sectors. To read NIESR's news release, with a link to the full Tracker, go to https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/modest-growth-outlook-clouded-risk?type=gdp-trackers.

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All areas of the UK look set to see steady economic growth over the next three years. According to the EY UK Regional Economic Forecast 2025, while all areas of the UK are set to see steady economic growth over the next three years, London and the East of England are the only two areas expected to grow at a faster pace than the UK average EY suggests that the UK overall is expected to see annual average Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of 1.6% between 2025 and 2028, while London and the East of England are both forecast to achieve annual GVA growth of 1.7% between 2025 and 2028. Close behind are the South East, the South West and Northern Ireland, which are all forecast to match the UK's pace, with annual GVA growth of 1.6% between 2025 and 2028. To read EY's news release, go to https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/03/uk-economy-gap-to-widen-ref-2025.

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Mid-sized firms are expected to contribute £745 billion to the UK economy by 2028. According to new forecasts released by BDO, mid-sized businesses are predicted to contribute £745 billion to UK gross value added (GVA) by 2028 and will account for more than a quarter (27%) of total UK GVA. This compares to £545 billion (24%) in 2023. Despite making up less than 1% of all UK businesses, the mid-market is expected to contribute 41% of cumulative total GVA growth in the next three years. The professional services sector is projected to be the largest contributor to GVA (£260 billion) by 2028, with manufacturing forecast to be the second largest contributing sector, with mid-sized manufacturers expected to generate £132 billion in GVA. Consumer markets, technology, media and telecoms, as well as real estate and construction, follow as major contributors. To read BDO's news release, go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2025/mid-sized-firms-to-contribute-745-billion-to-uk-economy-by-2028.​

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62% of UK firms with trade exposure to the USA say US tariffs will negatively impact them. A snap poll of more than 600 businesses by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has revealed that 62% of UK firms with trade exposure to the US expect to take a hit from the tariffs. Looking at the breakdown, 20% report a significant negative impact, 42% report some negative impact, 16% report no impact, 5% report some positive impact, and 2% report significant positive impact. 44% of firms with exposure to the USA say the UK should seek to negotiate a closer trade relationship with the USA, and 43% want closer trade with other markets. The survey also showed that 40% of firms considered the 10% tariff to be better than they had been expecting. Alongside increasing prices, 15% said they would seek alternative suppliers, while 13% said they expected to absorb the costs. Around a third (36%) said they would take no action at this time. To read the BCC's news release, go to https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2025/04/extent-of-us-tariff-impact-revealed/.

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UK retail closures are stabilising with fewer one-off failures. New research from PwC has found that UK store openings slowed to 25 per day in 2024 while closures stabilised, reducing to a net 10 closures per day. This slowdown is particularly noticeable in traditionally high-decline categories such as fashion, charity, and betting shops. Altogether, 12,804 shops and outlets belonging to multiples and chains (those with five or more outlets) exited UK high streets, shopping centres and retail parks in 2024. This is equivalent to 35 daily closures and the second-fewest closures in a decade. Openings follow a similar trend, with numbers slowing slightly to 25 per day—an improvement from the number of store openings during the pandemic but lower than the 34 per day peak during the mid-2010s. Closures are stabilising with fewer one-off failures and restructurings, leading to just 10 net closures per day, three less than in 2023. To read PwC's news release, go to https://www.pwc.co.uk/industries/retail-consumer/insights/store-openings-and-closures.html.

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UK high street sales flatline. According to BDO's latest High Street Sales Tracker, total retail sales in discretionary spend categories grew by +1.8% in March, failing to offset a negative base of -2.2% in the same month in 2024. Sales in-store increased by just +0.3%, compared to a negative base in March 2024 of -1.8%. As this is well below the rate of inflation, BDO notes that this means that actual sales volumes shrank in March compared to the same month last year. The lifestyle and homewares sectors fared particularly poorly last month, with sales in-store shrinking by -0.7% and -2.8% respectively compared to the same period last year. Online sales were the primary driver of growth, increasing by +6.1%. To read BDO's news release, go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2025/high-street-sales-flatline-as-retail-sector-faces-challenging-april.

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Global: Late Payment, Insolvencies & Global Economy

Data indicates a rise in corporate distress in Europe. The latest Weil European Distress Index (WEDI) suggests an increase in corporate distress across Europe, which, as of February 2025, reached its highest level in six months. Germany and the UK (see paragraph above) have experienced particularly sharp increases, with German corporate surging to its highest level since July 2020, the height of the pandemic. Corporate distress also reached its highest level in France since August 2020. In contrast, the WEDI indicates that Spain and Italy have shown considerable resilience. Although distress levels saw a marginal quarterly rise, they have eased on a year-by-year basis. To read the Index, go to https://www.weil.com/articles/the-weil-european-distress-index.

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2022–2026: Five successive years of increasing insolvencies. Allianz Trade's latest Global Insolvency Report predicts that global business insolvencies will continue to rise over the next two years. After a 10% increase in 2024, insolvencies are projected to grow by 6% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, resulting in five consecutive years of rising insolvencies from 2022 to 2026. However, the possibility of a trade war could push insolvency rates even higher. Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for insolvency research at Allianz Trade, commented: "A full-fledged trade war would increase our insolvency forecast by an additional +2.1pp and +4.8pps, meaning that global business insolvencies would rise by +7.8% and +8.3% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. For 2025–2026, this would mean +6,800 additional cases in the US and +9,100 in Western Europe". To read Allianz Trade's news release, with a link to the full report, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_global/news-insights/news/insolvency-report-2025.html.

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Insolvencies normalise, but a trade war brings new risks. Analysis from Atradius (published one day after President Trump's 'Liberation Day') suggests that while the ongoing trade war and higher tariffs will negatively affect growth, the impact on insolvencies may be limited, with global insolvencies remaining stable in 2025 before declining by 5% in 2026. Atradius' baseline scenario indicates that the Asia-Pacific region could see the largest decrease in insolvencies, with a 3% drop in 2025 and a 21% decrease in 2026. Insolvencies in North America could remain unchanged in both 2025 and 2026, while Europe could see a slight increase in 2025, followed by a 6% decline in 2026. However, Atradius notes that its baseline scenario is highly uncertain and warns that a full-blown trade war could increase global insolvencies by 6% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, with Asia-Pacific most affected. The US would also see business insolvencies rise by 7% in 2025 and 5% in 2026. To read Atradius' news release, go to https://group.atradius.com/knowledge-and-research/reports/economic-research-insolvency-outlook-april-2025.

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Atradius lowers its eurozone GDP growth forecasts by 0.3% to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026. Shortly before President Trump's 'Liberation Day', Atradius predicted some of the economic implications which could ensue should the US apply tariffs of between 10% and 25% on a range of EU imports in 2025. Atradius notes that the US is the EU's largest export market, and as such, it has already lowered its eurozone GDP growth forecasts by 0.3% to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026. However, EU countries will not be impacted equally, and among the large EU countries, Atradius estimates that Germany could be hardest hit with growth of just 0.1% in 2025—0.5% less than what might otherwise have been expected. Atradius also cites Oxford Economics' calculation that a blanket 10% US tariff on EU goods would see the level of business investment in the eurozone fall by almost two percentage points by the end of 2027. To read Atradius' news release, go to https://group.atradius.com/knowledge-and-research/news/eu-economies-brace-as-washington-and-brussels-trade-tariffs.

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Recent activity indicators point to a softening of global growth prospects. The OECD's Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2025, predicts that global GDP growth will moderate from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. Annual real GDP growth in the US is expected to slow from its "very strong" recent pace to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Euro area real GDP growth is projected to be 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, as heightened uncertainty keeps growth subdued. Growth in China is projected to slow from 4.8% this year to 4.4% in 2026. Furthermore, the OECD has revised down its growth forecasts for the UK, predicting an expansion of 1.4% in 2025 (down from 1.7% ) and 1.2% in 2026. To read the OECD's report, go to https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.html.

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Trade in goods with the US in 2024. Eurostat has advised that in 2024, the EU exported €531.6 billion in goods to the US and imported €333.4 billion, resulting in a €198.2 billion trade surplus. Compared with 2023, exports increased by 5.5%, while imports declined by 4.0%. The top 5 most exported divisions in 2024 made up 49.5% of all exports to the US. These were medicinal and pharmaceutical products (22.5%), road vehicles (9.6%), general industrial machinery and equipment (6.4%), electrical machinery, appliances and electrical parts (6.0%) and machinery specialised for particular industries (5.0%). Similarly, for imports, the top 5 divisions accounted for 50.4% of all imported goods. These were petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (16.1%), medicinal and pharmaceutical products (13.8%), power-generating machinery and equipment (9.2%), gas, natural and manufactured (5.8%) and other transport equipment (5.5%). For more information, go to https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20250311-1.

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Credit Management News & Resources

​How much compensation can you claim for unpaid invoices? Paidnice has launched a Late Payment Calculator. Users can instantly calculate statutory interest and late payment compensation fees on business invoices under UK law using the latest Bank of England base rate. Under The Late Payment of Commercial Debts (Interest) Act 1998, UK businesses are legally entitled to:

• Statutory interest of 8% plus the Bank of England base rate for business-to-business transactions

• Compensation for recovery costs (£40, £70, or £100 depending on the debt amount)

• The right to claim interest from the day payment becomes overdue

For example, for an unpaid debt of £100 due on 20 January 2025, the amount owing as of 6 April 2025 would be £142.60 (£2.60 in interest overdue, £40 in compensation). Compensation is £40 for invoices under £1000, £70 for invoices under £10,000 and £100 for invoices above £10,000. Compensation can be charged for each overdue invoice due from a debtor. To see the calculator, go to https://www.paidnice.com/uk/statutory-interest-calculator.

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Events & Professional Development

​Middle East and Africa 2025: Agency, Energy & Infrastructure Finance, 14–16 April. Dubai.

BOOK HERE BY 7 MARCH & SAVE £400

To maximise dealmaking opportunities and harness synergies between the regions, we're combining our Middle East and Africa events into one mega Middle East & Africa Congress. Join us in the UAE from April 14–16 2025, a pivotal trading hub central to Middle East and Africa capital and project flows. If you're interested in partnering with us on this journey, find out more and contact us here.Whether your objective is to find new business partners, originate new deals, or gain additional insight into the market in the Middle East & Africa, we’ve got you covered!

Key features for 2025:

• Now three days, with interactive expert-led workshops on day one that ensure you meet the right people in the right environment. 

• Identify deal opportunities: Stay ahead of the curve with actionable strategies and macroeconomic trends shared by industry leaders. With a global presence, attendees will have the opportunity to learn from diverse perspectives, discover international best practices, and foster cross-border collaboration to enrich their own strategies. and grow their business.

• Maximise origination opportunities: Gain actionable recommendations to support your company strategy and get ahead of competitors. Find out what international ECAs are doing to support business in the region.

• Connect with the right people, all in one-business trip: we curate event attendee lists with the most active dealmakers in ECA, Agency, infrastructure and Energy finance plus our dedicated networking concierge provides personalised introductions to your most compatible partners.

View the full speakers list and agenda here

For sponsorship, speaking or group booking enquiries, contact marketing@exilegroup.com.

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SCHUMANN CONNECT, 13 May 2025. London.
We are excited to invite you to our SCHUMANN CONNECT! event in London on Tuesday 13 May 2025.

You can look forward to an exclusive event focusing on the transformative role of technology in driving change within the credit and surety insurance industry. This event will highlight how technology and software implementation serve as enablers for innovation and change, exploring themes such as:

 

• Technology Transformation:

  • The role of data analytics in driving decision-making

  • Leveraging AI and machine learning for operational excellence

  • Replacing legacy systems with modern, scalable solutions

  • Enhancing connectivity to streamline operations

 

• People Involvement in Change Management:

  • Guiding teams through technological transformation

  • Aligning business development with technological advancements

  • Fostering a culture that embraces continuous innovation

 

The agenda will include expert-led discussions, case studies, and practical insights into the intersection of technology and people. Following the formal programme, we invite you to join us for networking and drinks to continue the conversation and CONNECT!.

 

When: 13.05.2025

Time: 5–9 pm

Where: Cavendish Venues, 1 America Square, 17 Crosswall, London EC3N 2LB

 

Admission is free.

You can register here.

Mark your calendar for this thought-provoking event. More details will follow soon!

 

We look forward to welcoming you to an engaging and forward-looking discussion.

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Global 2025: Export, Agency & Project Finance,10–12 June. Copenhagen, Denmark

BOOK HERE BY 25 APRIL & SAVE £600

Exile Group brings together our three key brands TXF (export finance), Proximo (project finance) and Uxolo (development finance) for an unbeatable opportunity to network, collaborate and originate deals. One ticket gives you access to all three industries. In 2024, 86% of attendees confirmed they will do more business as a result of attending the conference, making the event a true catalyst for the markets we cover.​

Why attend:

• Connect with the powerhouses of the industry: Step into this premier international gathering where over 1500 dealmakers from ECAs, DFIs, exporters, borrowers, developers, project sponsors, SOEs, government ministries, commercial banks, private insurers, law firms and institutional investors converge at the go-to event of the year!

• Unlock your origination potential: With just one trip, you'll be able to collaborate and originate deals with a wide range of stakeholders, and hold multiple meetings in one place for a jam-packed two days that will give you a fantastic return on your investment.

• Diversify your pipeline: With a global presence (over 63 countries in 2024), attendees will have the opportunity to learn from diverse perspectives, discover international best practices, and foster cross-border collaboration to enrich their own strategies and grow their business. All this, across export, project and development finance.​

View the full speakers list and agenda here

For sponsorship, speaking or group booking enquiries, contact marketing@exilegroup.com.

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About this month's Sponsor: Nexus Trade Credit

Nexus Trade Credit protects businesses against losses from non-payment of a commercial trade debt. Our clients range from manufacturers, subcontractors and service providers to importers and exporters. We aim to provide certainty of coverage to enable our clients to trade confidently at home or overseas. Whether
you are new to trade credit insurance or a long-standing client, we go the extra mile to support your growth and provide peace of mind.

Our team of specialists offer a variety of structures to suit the risk appetite and needs of the client. We also offer a range of enhanced coverage including, for example, applications by sub-contractors, pre-delivery costs incurred by manufacturers and timesheets used by labour providers.

We currently operate from offices in the UK, Germany, Netherlands, and France—specialising in Whole Turnover, Non-Cancellable Cover and, offer cover on a Top-Up and Key Buyer basis. We work closely with the broker and the client in advance to fully understand their needs and management policies.

In addition, we provide products that enhance companies’ credit management including First Limit, a service offering real-time credit opinions and 24/7 monitoring and First Place, a highly regarded debt collection service which is reinforced by further policy enhancements.

To get in touch or to learn more, visit our website at www.nexusunderwriting.com/en-gb/products/trade-credit-insurance.

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