Critical financial distress soars ahead of the UK budget. The latest "Red Flag Alert" report from Begbies Traynor has revealed a 78.0% year-on-year increase in 'critical' financial distress. As of 30 September 2025, 55,530 companies were in 'critical' financial distress, a 12.6% rise on the previous quarter. Notably, this rise in 'critical' distress was widespread, with 21 of the 22 sectors monitored by Red Flag Alert reporting a considerable deterioration in their financial health compared with the same period last year. The data paints a particularly difficult picture for consumer-facing industries, which continue to bear the brunt of the ongoing economic uncertainty. Leisure & Cultural Activities (+96.7%), Hotels & Accommodation (+92.5%), and General Retailers (+85.6%) saw some of the steepest increases in 'critical' distress over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the number of businesses in 'significant' financial distress also continued to climb in 18 out of 22 sectors analysed, rising 14.8% year-on-year to 726,594 firms. To read Begbies Traynor's news release, go to https://www.begbies-traynorgroup.com/news/press-releases/critical-financial-distress-soars-across-the-economy-ahead-of-budget.

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Nearly a fifth of UK-listed businesses have issued at least one warning in the last 12 months. According to EY-Parthenon's latest Profit Warnings report, 1 in 5 of the 64 profit warnings issued by UK-listed companies during Q3 2025 cited the impact of weaker consumer confidence, the highest proportion recorded for this cause since 2022 and up from 6% during the same period last year. While 19% of all profit warnings referenced falling consumer sentiment, this figure rises to 56% for listed retailers. The leading factors behind the profit warnings were policy changes and geopolitical uncertainty, cited in 47% of warnings. This marked the highest percentage recorded for this cause in more than 25 years of EY's analysis, and a significant increase from 17% in Q3 2024. 34% of profit warnings issued in the third quarter cited contract and order cancellations or delays, while 22% referenced tariff-related impacts. Over the last 12 months, 18% of UK-listed businesses have issued at least one profit warning. To read EY's news release, go to https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/10/profit-warnings-uk-listed-companies-weaker-consumer-confidence-three-year-high.

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ACCA says poor payment practices are still rife. The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) has urged the Government to act swiftly to fix the UK’s late payment crisis, warning that poor payment practices continue to harm small businesses and stifle growth. ACCA's research shows that a "staggering" 35.6% of UK SMEs reported problems with securing prompt payment. ACCA suggests that improvements could be made by giving the UK's small business commissioner (SBC) greater power, matched with adequate resourcing. However, one proposal, which ACCA says should not be implemented is mandatory statutory interest. Instead, it suggests that other reforms, including additional powers for the SBC, should be implemented first, followed by a post-implementation review. Mandatory statutory interest could be the next step if adequate progress has not been made. To read ACCA's news release, go to https://www.accaglobal.com/gb/en/news/2025/October/late-payment.html.

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Nearly a third of UK small businesses are considering shrinking, selling, or closing down. According to the latest research from the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), more small UK firms expect to shrink than to grow over the next year. New figures reveal that the proportion of small firms bracing for contraction (downsizing, closure, or a sale) in the next 12 months has risen to an unprecedented 30%. Within that figure, the percentage of those specifically predicting that they will close the business in the next year has jumped to 6%, up from 4% in Q2. That equates to more than 330,000 potential business closures. Just 18% of small businesses expect to grow over the next 12 months. The factor driving this pessimism around growth was predominantly the domestic economy, cited by over two-thirds of small firms (68%), followed by the tax burden (45%), labour costs (34%), and then consumer demand (28%). To read the FSB's news release, go to https://www.fsb.org.uk/media-centre/press-release/small-business-growth-hopes-plunge-chancellor-must-act-in-budget-MCJHXGO335K5HPPF27EKA3M5NIMM.

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One in six trading businesses in the UK have no cash reserves. New data from the Insolvency Service shows that corporate insolvencies in England and Wales decreased by 2% in September 2025 (to 2,000) compared with August 2025 (2,046). This was an increase of 2% compared to the September 2024 figure of 1,967, but a 6% decrease from September 2023's figure (2,128). Tom Russell, President of R3, commented: "Ongoing challenges such as higher energy and materials costs, cautious consumer demand and creditor pressure have combined with slower than anticipated reductions in the cost of borrowing to leave some businesses fighting hard to stay afloat." This pressure is reflected in the latest Office for National Statistics business insights data, which revealed that around one in six (17%) trading businesses reported having no cash reserves in late September 2025 - the highest proportion since the question was introduced in June 2020. To read R3's news release, go to https://www.r3.org.uk/press-policy-and-research/news/more/32617/page/1//.

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Headline numbers remain broadly unchanged, but insolvencies continue to be significantly above the pre-pandemic average. New data from Creditsafe has revealed that October's insolvency figures indicate that 2,417 businesses across the UK and Northern Ireland entered insolvency, representing a 22% increase from September 2025, but 14% lower than the same time last year. However, despite this slight year-on-year decline, insolvency levels remain high following a sharp surge in March and have remained consistently elevated throughout the intervening months. Construction was the UK's hardest-hit sector in September, with 419 firms entering insolvency, accounting for 16% of all business failures that month. Additionally, sectors traditionally prone to high insolvency rates also saw notable figures. In October, the Wholesale & Retail sector recorded 354 insolvencies, while Accommodation and Food Services recorded 356 failures. Together, these two sectors account for 28% of all insolvencies in the month. To view Creditsafe's findings, go to https://www.creditsafe.com/gb/en/blog/reports/insolvencies.html.

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52% of small UK businesses believe measures such as the Fair Payment Code, Late Payments Review and the British Business Bank's Bank Referral Scheme fail to protect them. Bibby Financial Services' (BFS) 2025 SME Confidence Tracker, which surveyed 1,000 UK SMEs, reveals that over half (52%) of small businesses believe measures such as the Fair Payment Code, Late Payments Review, and the British Business Bank's Bank Referral Scheme fail to protect and support them. BFS's research also found that SMEs reporting that one or more suppliers became insolvent (within the last six months) has climbed eight percentage points, from 47% to 55%. Looking at customer insolvencies, SMEs have seen a seven percentage point increase; 52% say one or more of their clients have gone bust, up from 45% half a year ago. SMEs are owed an average of £64,108 in unpaid invoices, up from £59,700 in the spring. Nearly three in ten (29%) have suffered bad debt in the past year, writing off unpaid invoices. Close to four in ten (39%) have had to write off up to £10,000. To read BFS's news release, go to https://www.bibbyfinancialservices.com/knowledge-hub/news/2025/high-costs-push-smes-into-survival-mode.

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Allianz Trade forecasts a modest decline in UK insolvencies, although figures remain well above pre-pandemic norms. Allianz Trade's latest Insolvency Report predicts that 27,650 UK businesses will become insolvent in 2025, a figure that remains just shy of the 12-year record of 28,100 cases posted in 2024. However, despite this, the UK is still faring better than many of its global counterparts: while global insolvencies are forecast to rise by +6% in 2025 and +5% in 2026, the UK is expected to plateau at around 31% above pre-pandemic levels through 2024 and 2025. Allianz Trade notes that this is a sign of relative resilience compared to export-driven economies such as France, Spain and Canada, which are facing sharper increases. Looking ahead, Allianz Trade forecasts a modest decline in UK insolvencies: 25,900 cases in 2026 (-3%) and 24,500 in 2027 (-5%), although these figures will remain well above pre-pandemic norms – 26% and 20% higher, respectively. To read Allianz Trade's news release, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_GB/newsroom/2025-allianz-trade-insolvency-rreport.html.

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​​​​​UK Economy

UK growth forecast upgraded to 1.5% for 2025, but GDP to slow next year. The EY ITEM Club has upgraded its forecast for UK GDP growth in 2025 from 1% to 1.5% after the economy displayed a greater momentum than expected throughout this year. However, the EY ITEM Club predicts a slowdown in growth towards the end of 2025 due to the combined effects of a fragile global economy, tighter fiscal policy and reduced consumer spending power. UK GDP is forecast to grow by 0.9% in 2026, before accelerating to 1.3% in 2027. Anna Anthony, EY UK & Ireland Regional Managing Partner, said: "The UK economy has shown encouraging resilience and momentum this year, particularly in the face of significant global disruption. While growth is forecast to continue, we expect a slowdown as tariff challenges and the delayed effects of high interest rates weigh further on economic activity going into next year." To read EY's news release, go to https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/11/uk-economic-growth-forecast-upgraded-for-2025.

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The UK economy has lost momentum. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's (NIESR) latest Economic Outlook predicts that, after a strong start to 2025, the UK economy has lost momentum. GDP grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, boosted by activity brought forward ahead of higher National Insurance Contributions and the National Living Wage rise. But growth slowed to 0.3% in the second quarter and is expected to remain subdued at 0.3% and 0.4% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. As a result, NIESR now forecasts annual GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025, slightly above its long-run trend of 1.25%, before easing to 1.2% in 2026 and 2027. CPI inflation averaged 3.8% in the third quarter and is projected to stay above 3% until Spring 2026, when favourable base effects should bring it close to target. NIESR expects inflation to fall to 2.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and to reach the 2% target by the third quarter. To read NIESR's Outlook, go to https://niesr.ac.uk/reports/economic-outlook-autumn-2025.

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UK GDP increased by 0.3% over the three months to August 2025. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), seasonally adjusted UK GDP grew by 0.1% in August 2025, while July was revised down to -0.1% (from no growth in the ONS' previous release). Over the three months to August, GDP increased by 0.3%. By sector, services output grew by 0.4% in the three months to August 2025 compared with the three months to May 2025, production output fell by 0.3%, and construction output increased by 0.3%. Over the longer term, UK GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.5% in the three months to August 2025, compared with the same three months a year ago. GDP is estimated to have been 1.3% higher in August 2025, compared with the same month a year ago. To read the ONS' news release, go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/august2025.

Licensed under the terms of Open Government. Licence v3.0.​

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UK finance leaders report rising cost pressures. Deloitte's latest survey of UK Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) shows that CFO expectations for operating costs have risen to the highest level in more than four years. A net 84% of finance leaders expect operating costs to increase over the next 12 months. Geopolitics has been rated as a top concern for CFOs in all but two quarters since the invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, concerns about UK productivity and competitiveness have risen to the highest level since 2014 and now ranks joint first with geopolitics on the CFO risk list. A net 47% of CFOs expect to see a fall in operating margins over the coming 12 months, the highest reading since Q2 2023. Finance chiefs continue to adopt a defensive strategy stance, with cost reduction and cash control their top two priorities for the next 12 months. To read Deloitte's latest CFO Survey news release, go to https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/about/press-room/deloitte-cfo-survey-uk-finance-leaders-report-rising-cost-pressures.html.

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UK private sector downturn set to persist into 2026. According to the CBI's latest Growth Indicator, UK private-sector firms expect activity to fall over the next three months (weighted balance of -20%), extending a run of negative predictions that began in late 2024. The downturn is expected to be broad-based, with business volumes in the services sector set to decline (-15%), driven by weak expectations in both business & professional services (-12%) and consumer services (-28%). Distribution sales are expected to fall sharply (-34%), alongside a contraction in manufacturing output (-19%). This outlook comes as private sector activity fell in the three months to October (-32%), the same pace as in the three months to September. All sub-sectors reported falling activity. To read the CBI's news release, go to https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/private-sector-downturn-set-to-persist-into-2026-cbi-growth-indicator-october-2025/.

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The golden quarter gets off to a dull start. According to the latest High Street Sales Tracker from BDO, UK Retailers entered the Golden Quarter on shaky ground as high inflation and weak consumer confidence weighed on October sales. Total like-for-like retail sales across discretionary categories (fashion, homewares and lifestyle) were broadly flat, slipping -0.02% and ending a four-month run of positive sales results. Store sales continued to show resilience, rising 1.1% and outpacing online for a second consecutive month. Sophie Michael, Head of Retail and Wholesale at BDO, commented: "After several months of positive momentum, October has brought a sharp reminder of how fragile consumer confidence remains. As we predicted last month, shoppers are still haunted by high inflation, particularly on food, while uncertainty about their household finances is keeping a firm grip on discretionary spending. Consumers are being highly selective and many are prioritising spending on essentials and experiences rather than non-essential goods." To read BDO's news release, go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2025/golden-quarter-gets-off-to-a-dull-start-as-inflation-haunts-shoppers.

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The UK retail sector continues to struggle. A new report by Tokio Marine HCC has warned that, although UK retail sales increased modestly during the summer months, the sector is still not performing well. According to data from the Office for National Statistics, although retail sales volumes rose by 0.5% m/m in August, marking a third straight monthly gain, volumes have not regained their March 2025 peak and sit 2.1% below the pre-COVID level of February 2020. Data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) also shows ongoing problems. Footfall continued to drop in August (-0.4% in year-on-year y/y terms), following a similar contraction in July. Furthermore, in August 2025, the share of online retail (excluding automotive fuel) in total UK retail sales stood at 27.6%, compared with 27.1% one year earlier. Looking ahead to 2026, Tokio Marine HCC warns that "the macroeconomic outlook is lacklustre, at best". To read Tokio Marine HCC's report, go to https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-retail-sector-report-oct-2025. 

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Growing disparity between the experience of the UK's largest and smallest exporters. New data from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Insights Unit shows a widening divide between the fortunes of different-sized UK exporters. Only 16% of micro-exporters (businesses with fewer than 10 employees) increased export orders in Q3 (18% in Q2), 27% reported a fall, and 57% reported no change. In contrast, 42% of large exporters, with more than 250 staff, saw a boost in overseas orders in the last quarter (29% in Q2), 11% reported a decrease, and 47% said they'd seen no change. The research shows that sentiment among all exporters remains weak, with most struggling to see improved sales or orders. Only 24% of all exporters reported increased overseas sales, while 22% of all businesses saw a boost in export orders in Q3. Analysis by the BCC shows that a 2% increase in UK exports would increase growth by 0.6%. To read the BCC's news release, go to https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2025/11/small-firms-need-more-help-to-unlock-trade/.

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Service sector slowdown drags on UK output growth. According to the latest Business Trends report from BDO LLP, the UK's post-summer economic rebound has been short-lived. BDO's Output Index declined to 98.53 in September, down from 101.21 in the previous month and falling below the 100-point threshold, which represents long-term average growth levels over the past 15 years. After exceeding 100 points in August for the first time in over three years, September's decline signals that UK business momentum has once again stalled. This decline was primarily driven by the services sector, where output fell from 102.06 to 99.07, marking the sharpest month-on-month fall since September 2022, when UK inflation had just hit double digits. Manufacturing output also slipped slightly from 94.53 in August to 94.28 in September, as supply chain disruptions and lingering trade uncertainty constrained production. Scott Knight, Head of Growth at BDO, commented: "The uptick we saw in August was a false dawn." To read BDO's news release, go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2025/service-sector-slowdown-drags-on-uk-output-growth.

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Global: Late Payment, Insolvencies & Global Economy

While the near-term forecast is revised up modestly, global growth remains subdued. According to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the overall global economic environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025 (such as front-loading) are fading. As a result, global growth projections in the latest WEO have been revised upward relative to the April 2025 WEO, but continue to mark a downward revision relative to the pre-policy-shift forecasts. Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5% and emerging-market and developing-economy growth just above 4%. However, risks are tilted to the downside. Prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism, and labour supply shocks could reduce growth. To read the IMF's WEO, go to https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025.

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NIESR trims global growth to 1.7% in 2025, 1.5% in 2026. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's (NIESR) latest Global Economic Outlook projects global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, easing from 1.8% in 2024. The slowdown is driven mainly by the US, where growth is set to cool from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.9% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, as tariffs, policy uncertainty, and tighter immigration policies dampen demand. By contrast, the Euro Area is expected to grow 1.3% in both 2025 and 2026, supported by lower energy prices, modest fiscal expansion and rising real wages. Emerging markets remain the main growth engine, albeit moderating: NIESR projects growth of 4.2% in 2025, with China at 4.9% (slowing to 4.4% in 2026) and India leading at 6.4% in both years. The outlook for global inflation is mixed. US CPI inflation is expected to average 2.7% in 2025–26, reflecting tariff effects, dollar depreciation and fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, inflation is projected to stay close to target. To read NIESR's Outlook, go to https://niesr.ac.uk/reports/economic-outlook-autumn-2025.

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Atradius downgrades global growth to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. New analysis by Atradius projects that global growth will be 2.7% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 – a downward revision for 2026 of 0.3 percentage points compared to Atradius' previous April Insolvency Outlook. Although the global economy proved resilient this year amid higher policy uncertainty and trade tariffs, in 2026, Atradius expects the negative impact of rising tariffs will be felt more clearly, particularly in the US.​ For the US economy, Atradius predicts 1.9% growth in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Due to tariffs and policy uncertainty, growth was revised down by a cumulative 0.6 percentage points in both years. ​The eurozone is expected to grow modestly by 1.2% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, as the negative effects of tariffs become more pronounced. Germany shows the weakest growth of all the major eurozone countries in 2025. By comparison, countries in southern Europe are demonstrating relatively strong GDP figures. To read Atradius' news release, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/reports/economic-research-insolvency-outlook-oct-2025.

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GDP up by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU in Q3 2025. According to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, in the third quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter.  Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU. Among the Member States for which data is available for the third quarter of 2025, Sweden (+1.1%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+0.8%) and Czechia (+0.7%). Declines were recorded in Lithuania (-0.2%), Ireland and Finland (both -0.1%). The year-on-year growth rate was positive in 14 countries and negative in one. To read Eurostat's news release, go to https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30102025-ap.

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EU businesses: €10.5 trillion in value added in 2023. According to new data released by Eurostat, in 2023, there were around 33.1 million enterprises in the EU, employing 162.2 million people. Those enterprises generated a net turnover of over €38.5 trillion, leading to €10.5 trillion in value added. Large enterprises (with more than 249 employees) accounted for only 0.2% of the total number of enterprises in the EU's business economy. However, they employed more than a third (37%) of the labour force and generated around half (49%) of total value added. Medium-sized enterprises (50-249 people employed) constituted a small share of the total number of enterprises (0.8%), employed 15% of the people and generated 16% of the value added. 99% of enterprises were micro and small (0-49 employees). Together, these enterprises employed almost half of all people in the EU's business economy (48%) and accounted for 35% of its total value added. To read Eurostat's news release, go to https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20251013-2.

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​More businesses opened than dissolved in the EU in 2023. According to new data released by Eurostat, while 3.5 million new enterprises were born in 2023, 2.8 million enterprise deaths were registered. The enterprise birth rate was 10.5%, while the enterprise death rate was 8.5%. In most EU countries, more companies were created than dissolved in 2023. The exceptions were Bulgaria, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Poland, and Slovakia, where enterprise death rates exceeded birth rates. The highest enterprise birth rates were recorded in Lithuania (19.6%), Malta (17.1%) and Portugal (16.8%). By contrast, the lowest rates were registered in Austria (6.2%), Denmark (7.3%) and Italy (7.8%). The highest preliminary death rates of enterprises were registered in Estonia (27.5%), Ireland (16.6%) and Bulgaria (16.5%). The lowest rates were registered in Hungary (2.6%), Greece (3.4%) and the Netherlands (5.0%). To read Eurostat's news release, go to https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20251013-1.

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Allianz Trade sees US insolvencies rising into 2026. As reported by Insurance Business, Allianz Trade's latest Insolvency Report found that, although US tariffs have altered trade flows, they have not led to a surge in US insolvencies. Instead, large firms benefited as exporters moderated prices and goods were rerouted through countries such as India and Vietnam, while tariffs provided protection for US domestic firms from foreign competition. In early 2025, US insolvencies were about 4% lower due to tariff effects; however, rising input costs later outweighed those gains, leaving a net +4% increase for 2025 as a whole. Allianz Trade expects US insolvencies to rise by 9% by the end of 2025 as cost pressures and weaker demand persist, with a further ~4,500 potential bankruptcies if the AI-driven boom falters. To read Insurance Business' article, go to https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/global-insolvencies-to-peak-in-2026-amid-trade-shifts--allianz-553700.aspx.

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Continued high levels of late payments and bad debt highlight the need for proactive payment risk strategies. Silvia Ungaro, Senior Advisor at Atradius, has published an article examining lessons learnt from a year of B2B payment disruption. She notes that, while some regions have seen a slight decline in overdue invoices, progress remains modest. In Western Europe, for instance, 47% of B2B invoices are still paid late, and bad debts affect an average of 6% of B2B invoices. The situation is even more severe in markets like India, where overdue invoices affect 63% of B2B sales and bad debts have risen to 7%. Across the board, the most common reason for late payments remains customer cash flow pressure. Nearly half of the companies in Western Europe expect insolvencies to increase in the months ahead. To read Atradius' article, go to https://group.atradius.com/knowledge-and-research/news/what-did-a-year-of-b2b-payment-disruption-teach-us.

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The global economy has shown "surprising resilience". Coface's latest Risk Review advises that the global economy absorbed much of the trade turbulence in 2025, but warns that the lagged effects will spread in the coming quarters. Many companies mitigated the shock by rerouting supply chains, adjusting pricing and diversifying markets, while the US was cushioned by strong AI-related investment. However, the first negative signs for activity, employment and inflation are appearing in the US, heralding a gradual transfer of the harmful effects. Coface now forecasts global growth of +2.6% in 2025 – revised upwards slightly – followed by +2.4% in 2026. The US is holding up better than expected for the time being. In contrast, China's growth is expected to continue to slow, and eurozone growth will remain sluggish – despite a minor rebound in Germany. To read Coface's news release, go to https://www.coface.com/news-economy-and-insights/coface-risk-review-october-2025-the-calm-during-the-storm.

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Business insolvencies are on the rise in three out of five countries in 2025. Allianz Trade's latest Insolvency Report notes that export-driven economies are most affected by President Trump's tariffs on global insolvencies. In the worst-case scenario, Canada could see an additional 1,900 insolvent companies, France 6,000, Spain up to 2,900, and the Netherlands 700. In contrast, Allianz Trade forecasts a negligible impact in Germany, the UK, Italy, and Belgium, due to diversified export markets, larger domestic bases, or stronger financial positions. Overall, business insolvencies are on the rise in three out of five countries in 2025, representing 68% of global GDP. This outlook has led Allianz Trade to maintain its global business insolvency forecast for 2025, with a +6% rise expected, followed by +5% in 2026 (up from +3% in Allianz Trade's previous forecast). This means that 2026 would mark five consecutive years of increases to reach a record high number of bankruptcies, +24% above the pre-pandemic average. To read Allianz Trade's report, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_global/news-insights/news/global-insolvencies-still-waiting-for-tariffs.html.

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Atradius warns that its insolvency forecast has deteriorated. Year-to-date 2025 insolvency projections have been revised upwards in all regions from Atradius' April outlook. In its latest Insolvency Outlook, Atradius now projects global cases up 5% in 2025, followed by a 3% decline in 2026. Regionally, North America is expected to see a 5% rise in insolvencies in both 2025 and 2026 as tariffs weigh on the US and Canada. Within this, the US is forecast at +6% in 2025 and +7% in 2026, while in Canada, due to the exceptionally high level of insolvencies in 2024, Atradius' forecast indicates a 17% year-on-year decline for 2025. In Europe, where tariff effects are milder, Atradius expects a 3% increase in insolvencies in 2025, followed by a 7% decline in 2026. In the Asia-Pacific region, insolvencies are forecast to rise by 7% in 2025, followed by a sharp 20% decline in 2026 as insolvencies adjust down from historically high levels. To read Atradius' news release, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/reports/economic-research-insolvency-outlook-oct-2025.

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Credit Management News & Resources

​​71% of UK business decisions are made without complete data. Following a survey of 250 leaders at UK companies with revenues above £100 million, new research from EY found that only 29% of high-value decisions (spend ≥ £50,000 with measurable financial, risk, operational or reputational impact) were made with complete, reliable data. Nearly 1 in 10 (8%) were taken using very limited or poor-quality information. While leaders recognise the upside of complete data – 65% say integrating financial and non-financial data is a competitive advantage – most lack real-time inputs. Only 37% have access to real-time financial data, and just 14% to real-time non-financial data (e.g., production or operational metrics). The gap between intent and capability suggests many UK firms are still flying partly blind on their most consequential decisions. To read EY's news release, go to https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/11/uk-business-decisions-lack-non-financial-data.

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Hybrid working and a move away from 9-5 hours are seeing UK mid-sized businesses embrace flexible models to boost productivity. New data from Grant Thornton UK reveals that hybrid and remote working patterns amongst tmid-sized businesses in the UK are widely perceived as productivity enhancers. 80% of respondents also say their organisations are shifting away from the traditional 9–5 office-based model towards more agile, hybrid approaches. The findings, drawn from Grant Thornton's September 2025 Business Outlook Tracker, show that 79% of businesses agree remote working has positively impacted productivity, with 78% saying the same for hybrid working. Richard Waite, People and Culture Director and Head of Talent and Recruitment at Grant Thornton UK, commented that this insight ties into the UK's broader productivity challenge, as highlighted in Grant Thornton's earlier research on medium-sized firms, which found that while these businesses are among the most productive, they are often held back by staff burnout. To read Grant Thornton's news release, go to https://www.grantthornton.co.uk/news-centre/hybrid-working---oct-2025/.

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Compare and select trade credit insurance with Compare Credit Insurance. Earlier this year, Bartlett Group launched a new platform, Compare Credit Insurance, designed to help businesses compare and select trade credit insurance. The website offers a user-friendly interface with comprehensive comparisons of various credit insurance options, "providing impartial insights to ensure businesses make informed choices." Key features include expert guidance, resources for better financial decision-making, and tools to help companies protect against payment risks or assess their existing coverage. Compare Credit Insurance aims to simplify and streamline the credit insurance process, making it more transparent and accessible for businesses. The Bartlett Group also encourages feedback to enhance the platform's services further. To explore the new service, visit https://comparecreditinsurance.co.uk/.

 

Updated list: approved export finance insurance brokers. UK Export Finance has produced an updated list of brokers in connection with UK Export Finance’s Export Insurance Policy. These brokers can help arrange insurance from private-sector organisations in addition to UK Export Finance. The complete list can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-export-finance-insurance-list-of-approved-brokers/export-insurance-approved-brokers.

 

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Events & Professional Development​

GTR Africa London, 20 November, 2025. London
Set to return on November 20, 2025, GTR is excited to welcome back delegates to GTR Africa London, the UK’s leading and unrivalled Africa-focused trade, export and infrastructure financing conference.With the anticipated attendance of over 500 industry and trade finance leaders and more than three hours of dedicated networking opportunities, GTR Africa London provides the ideal platform to connect and establish new relationships with leading professionals shaping the future of African trade.Expect to hear from over 50 expert speakers as they tackle the latest challenges facing African trade, export, and infrastructure finance, and explore the complexities of a rapidly changing global economy and emerging opportunities for trade in Africa. GTR looks forward to seeing you there!
2024 event discussion themes:​

• A macro-economic analysis for African trade

• Climate-aligned infrastructure and alternative finance

• Working capital, SME and local bank credit solutions

• The export credit market and impact of OECD reform

• Sovereign debt frameworks and the outlook for reform

​10% Early Booking Discount– Available until October 17, 2025.

For details, go to https://www.gtreview.com/events/europe/gtr-africa-2025-london/.

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TXF Export Finance Dealmakers Assembly 2025, 25-26 November 2025. Vienna.

Join the Export Finance Dealmakers in Vienna

Exile Group invites you to Vienna this November for the TXF Export Finance Dealmakers Assembly 2025 – the essential meeting point for the global export finance community.

This two-day event brings together senior representatives from ECAs, exporters, borrowers, banks, and governments for high-impact networking, strategic discussions, and business-critical connections. With a sharp focus on deal origination and execution, experience a streamlined, dealmaker-driven format designed to maximise face time and accelerate relationships.

Whether you’re closing deals, sourcing finance, or driving policy, Vienna is the place to meet your counterparts and shape the future of export finance.

For more information visit the website, or contact us at marketing@exilegroup.com.

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GTR Nordics, 26 November 2025. Stockholm.
We are thrilled to announce that GTR Nordics will return to Stockholm on November 26, 2025! The region’s premier annual trade, supply chain and export financing event will bring together over 60 thought leaders to discuss the evolving opportunities and challenges impacting Nordic trade, with unmissable networking opportunities providing the chance to connect with the market’s top players, catch up with industry peers and forge new business connections. We hope to see you there!

2024 key discussion themes included:

• Transitional investment and sustainability strategy

• The evolving value of supply chain finance

• Financing transition-critical Nordic industries

• Supporting Ukraine reconstruction

• Working capital optimisation and innovation

• Trade fintech and ecosystem digitalisation

10% Early Booking Discount– Available until October 24, 2025.

For details, go to https://www.gtreview.com/events/europe/gtr-nordics-2025-stockholm/.​

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GTR US, 3 December 2025, New York
GTR are delighted to make a return to Manhattan on December 3, 2025 for the next instalment of GTR US! The leading event for the US trade, supply chain, working capital financing and risk management community will bring together over 500 industry leaders to discuss the emerging trends and opportunities across the market with numerous highly focused and thought-provoking conversations. Providing unmatched networking opportunities with leading industry representatives and exhibitors, don’t miss the chance to rekindle with peers and create new business. GTR looks forward to seeing you there!

2024 key discussion themes included:

• Trade and working capital financing priorities

• Intra-American supply chain growth

• Inventory management practicalities

• Basel Endgame and Regulation Q

• eBills and fintech interoperability

• AI, data and the next trade generation

GTR US once again represents an unmissable date for all those seeking to build their network and practical knowledge across trade, supply chain and working capital financing.

10% Early Booking Discount– Available until October 31, 2025.

For details, go to https://www.gtreview.com/events/americas/gtr-us-2025-new-york/.

 

 

About this month's Sponsor: Compare Credit Insurance

At Compare Credit Insurance, we believe reviewing your credit insurance shouldn’t be complicated or time-consuming. That’s why we have created a service that makes it simple to see what is out there. Our service helps to compare quotes and make confident decisions, all with independent advice and no hidden costs.
We work with every major credit insurer in the UK. We are completely independent and our only priority is finding the cover that best fits your business and risk profile.
Our team helps you benchmark existing policies, compare renewal terms and negotiate better deals. If you are new to credit insurance, we will walk you through the entire process from start to finish. Including how it works, what to expect and how to get the most value from your policy - without the jargon.
We support businesses of all sizes, from SMEs to corporates across sectors, such as manufacturing, distribution and recruitment. Whatever the size or shape of your business, our goal is the same: to help you protect your cash flow and trade with confidence.
Our advice is free, impartial and confidential. It only takes a few minutes to get started and see what your options look like.

Visit www.comparecreditinsurance.co.uk to learn more or request your free market comparison today