The UK's smallest businesses are owed an average of £42,000 in overdue invoices. Sage has released research highlighting that the UK's smallest businesses are owed an average of £42,000 in overdue invoices—a figure that has increased for three consecutive years. Commissioned by Sage and conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the analysis examined over 1.2 million anonymised invoices issued by more than 31,000 Sage customers. The findings reveal that 44% of invoices were paid late, with a total of £112 billion currently tied up in late payments. "Late payments have worsened over the past three years," said Christopher Breen, Head of Economic Insight. "While payment times are falling slightly, it's not enough to offset the rising value of overdue invoices. With the average late invoice now comparable to the typical cash a small business holds, this issue is withholding capital that could be used to invest or build resilience." To read Sage's news release, go to https://www.sage.com/en-gb/company/digital-newsroom/2025/05/14/addressing-late-payments-could-unlock-112-billion-in-cashflow-for-small-businesses/.

 

Bad debts account for 7% of all B2B invoices in the UK. Atradius' latest survey has found that the payment behaviour of B2B companies in the UK has remained largely unchanged in recent months, with payment delays still widespread across the market. 51% of B2B invoices are currently overdue, with the consumer durables sector particularly impacted. Bad debts account for 7% of all B2B invoices and are most notable in the agri-food industry. The survey also found that in response to the continuing issue of payment delays, UK businesses have scaled back the amount of credit offered to B2B customers, which now accounts for 49% of all B2B sales. Atradius also found that the outlook on insolvency risk varies notably across industries in our survey of UK companies. Agri-food businesses express the greatest uncertainty, while the transport sector exhibits a more balanced mood, and the consumer durables industry shows some optimism. To read Atradius' news release, with a link to the full report, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/reports/b2b-payment-practices-trends-united-kingdom-2025.

April's corporate insolvency figures were the highest seen since July 2024. The latest insolvency data for England and Wales has shown that corporate insolvencies increased by 2.9% (to 2,053) in April 2025 compared to March 2025's total but decreased by 5.1% compared to April 2024's total of 2,163. Tom Russell, President of R3 and a Licensed Insolvency Practitioner and Director at James Cowper Kreston, commented: "April's corporate insolvency figures were the highest we have seen since July 2024. Creditors' Voluntary Liquidations remain the process companies most commonly enter into—and their consistently high numbers reflect the ongoing challenges . . . Compulsory liquidations have also hit their highest level in more than five years as creditors chase down unpaid debts in an attempt to meet their own payment deadlines." To read R3's news release, go to https://www.r3.org.uk/press-policy-and-research/news/more/32453/page/1//.

May insolvency data: Promising at first glance, but many businesses are now facing a fresh wave of challenges. New data from Creditsafe has found that May's insolvency data indicates that insolvency levels remain well above pre-pandemic norms. 2,510 businesses across the UK and Northern Ireland declared insolvency in May 2025—a 1% decrease from April and 8% lower than the same month last year. Construction remained the UK's most affected industry in May, with 409 firms becoming insolvent, accounting for 16% of all business failures that month. Two notable collapses highlight the sector's persistent challenges. Corbyn Construction, a major groundworks contractor, entered administration after struggling with losses and mounting court judgments. Administrators have also been appointed for commercial building manufacturer Jans Offsite Solutions. To view Creditsafe's findings, go to https://www.creditsafe.com/gb/en/blog/reports/insolvencies.html.

Key differences in insolvency proceedings across markets. To explore key differences in insolvency proceedings across markets, Atradius' Special Risk Management and Underwriting experts worldwide have updated their Insolvency Framework whitepaper, now focusing on thirty-nine of the world's major markets. The study provides a comprehensive overview of insolvency proceedings and recovery expectations in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Italy, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Turkey, the UK, and the US. To read Atradius' whitepaper, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/news/exploring-global-insolvency-frameworks0.​

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​​​​​UK Economy

​UK GDP growth could hit 1.2% in 2025 as trade agreements lower uncertainty. KPMG's European Economic Outlook has advised that the UK economic outlook could brighten over the next two years as the economy benefits from easing trade tensions and lower uncertainty arising from potential trade agreements with some of its key trading partners. KPMG predicts that the UK could see growth of 1.2% in 2025, followed by growth of 1.1% in 2026. This would put growth in 2025 ahead of Belgium, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland and Austria, but suggests that GDP growth will match or trail most European countries (except Italy and France) in 2026. To read KPMG's news release, go to https://kpmg.com/uk/en/insights/economics/uk-economic-outlook.html.

 

The UK tops Q1 GDP growth but trails its peers in the post-COVID recovery. The House of Commons Library's latest GDP-comparison briefing shows the UK leading near-term growth but lagging in the longer recovery. In Q1 2025, UK output grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter—more than double the euro area's 0.3% and ahead of Germany (0.4%) and France (0.1%). US GDP slipped 0.1%. Measured from the pre-COVID-19 peak (Q4 2019), however, UK GDP is only 4.1% higher, compared to 5.3% for the euro area and 12.1% for the US. Within the G7, only Japan (+3.6%) and Germany (+0.3%) have posted weaker cumulative growth. That said, the Library notes that cross-country comparisons are skewed by pandemic-era statistical methods: the UK's approach to valuing education and health output depressed 2020 GDP and flattered the rebound in 2021-22, so headline gaps should be read with caution. To read the House of Commons Library publication, go to https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02784/SN02784.pdf.
Licensed under the terms of Open Government. Licence v3.0.

UK private sector outlook expectations are at their weakest since September 2022. According to the CBI's latest Growth Indicator, UK private sector firms once again expect activity to fall in the three months to August (weighted balance of -30%). Expectations are now at their weakest since September 2022. Business volumes in the services sector are expected to decline (-32%), with expectations at their weakest since November 2022. The anticipated decline is driven by predictions of a decrease in both business and professional services (-29%) and consumer services (-43%) volumes. Distribution sales are also expected to decline in the three months to August (-39%, the weakest expectations since September 2022), alongside a decrease in manufacturing output (-14%). The negative outlook comes as private sector activity fell again in the three months to May (-26%, from -19% in April). The decline in activity was broad-based across all sectors. To read the CBI's news release, go to https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/private-sector-outlook-weakest-since-2022-cbi-growth-indicator/.

The OECD warns that the UK's growth is expected to slow to 1% next year. According to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook, although the UK economy picked up speed at the start of 2025—posting a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter GDP increase in Q1, compared to just 0.1% in Q4 2024—the OECD has nonetheless revised its outlook downward. Growth is now forecast at 1.3% for 2025 (down from 1.4%) and 1.0% for 2026 (down from 1.2%). The downgrade reflects intensifying trade frictions, tighter financial conditions and lingering political uncertainty that continue to sap confidence. Surveys already show business sentiment slipping and new export orders contracting, signalling that momentum could fade as higher borrowing costs restrain investment and households grow more cautious. To read the OECD's news release, go to, OECD, (2025), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1, 3 June 2025, https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en/full-report/united-kingdom_a5598730.html.

Predicted UK growth in 2025 is upgraded from 0.9% to 1.1%. Growth in 2026 is downgraded from 1.4% to 1.2%. The British Chambers of Commerce's (BCC) latest Quarterly Economic Forecast (QEF) has increased growth predictions for 2025 but warned that the UK economy will remain sluggish. The QEF expects the UK economy to grow by 1.1%, revised up from the previous forecast of 0.9%. This year's growth is expected to be driven by better-than-expected GDP figures in Q1, before the national insurance hike and the US tariff war. Increased government spending is another contributor to growth. GDP is expected to rise in 2026 to 1.2%, but that is slightly down from the last forecast (1.4%). Growth in 2027 is forecast to be 1.5%. The service sector is expected to perform best this year, growing by 1.2%. Meanwhile, the forecast suggests a growth of 0.8% in the construction industry in 2025, while the manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 0.5%, revised up from a previous forecast of -0.2%. To read the BCC's news release, go to https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2025/06/economic-forecast-uk-at-risk-of-2-speed-economy/.

The IMF forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 1.2% this year and1.4% in 2026. Just over a month after it downgraded its expectations for the UK from 1.6% in 2025 to 1.1%, the IMF has released its latest annual assessment of the UK economy, slightly upgrading its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.1% to 1.2%. This modest revision reflects stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first quarter of the year, driven by a rise in consumer spending and a rebound in business investment. Looking further ahead, the IMF forecasts that UK economic growth will accelerate to 1.4% in 2026 despite headwinds which the IMF calculates will reduce annual growth by 0.3%. To read the IMF's news release, go to https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/27/cs-uk-aiv-2025.

UK GDP in Q1 showed its strongest performance in two years. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that UK GDP grew 0.7 % in Q1 2025—its strongest quarterly performance in two years and a marked acceleration from the 0.1% logged in Q4 2024. The upturn was led by a 0.7% rise in services and a 1.1% rebound in manufacturing within the production sector, while construction remained flat. The Guardian noted that this put the UK at the top of the G7 growth table for the quarter. Over the longer term, GDP was 1.2% higher in the three months to March than in the same period a year earlier, with services up 1.5%, construction up 0.9%, and production down 0.2%. To read the ONS' news release, go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2025.
Licensed under the terms of Open Government. Licence v3.0.

 

UK high street sales slump as online growth stalls. According to BDO's latest High Street Sales Tracker, total like-for-like retail sales in discretionary categories fell by -1.2% in May, compared to a positive base of +2.3% in the same month last year. The decline was driven in part by the fall in non-store retail sales, which dropped by -3.1% compared to May 2024. This is the first negative result in online sales since March 2024, excluding Black Friday in November of last year. All discretionary categories saw poor performance in May. Sophie Michael, Head of Retail and Wholesale at BDO, commented: "This is a hugely disappointing set of results for the retail sector as we head into the summer months. Retailers have been predicting the inflationary cost challenges for some time, and, unfortunately, we're now seeing them have a real impact." To read BDO's news release, go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2025/high-street-sales-slump-as-online-growth-grinds-to-a-halt.

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Global: Late Payment, Insolvencies & Global Economy

Global GDP growth is expected to average just 2.5% in the 2020s—the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s. The World Bank has warned that the global economy is facing substantial headwinds, emanating mainly from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. As a result, global growth is predicted to weaken to 2.3% (0.4% lower than was forecast in January) in 2025, the weakest in seventeen years outside of outright recessions and a significant downgrade from previous forecasts. However, growth could be lower if trade restrictions escalate or if policy uncertainty persists. Only a tepid recovery is expected in 2026-27, and by 2027, global GDP growth is expected to average just 2.5% in the 2020s—the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s. To read the World Bank's news release, with a link to the full report, go to https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects?intcid=ecr_hp_headerA_en_ext.

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​The global economic outlook shifts as trade policy uncertainty weakens economic growth. According to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook, global economic prospects are weakening, with substantial barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, diminishing confidence, and heightened policy uncertainty projected to have adverse impacts on growth. The Outlook projects that global growth will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. The slowdown is expected to be most concentrated in the US, Canada, Mexico and China, with more minor downward adjustments in other economies. GDP growth in the US is projected to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. In the euro area, growth is projected to strengthen modestly from 0.8% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. China's growth is projected to moderate from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. To read the OECD's news release, go to OECD, (2025), Global economic outlook shifts as trade policy uncertainty weakens growth, 3 June 2025, https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2025/06/global-economic-outlook-shifts-as-trade-policy-uncertainty-weakens-growth.html.

CEE Insolvencies rise despite economic recovery. Coface's latest annual insolvency report for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reveals a contradictory picture: while economic growth returned in 2024, business stability continued to deteriorate, and insolvency rates increased in most countries across the region. Overall, the region recorded an average GDP growth of 2.6% in 2024, representing a significant improvement from the 0.8% growth in 2023. However, this economic rebound did not translate into business resilience. Insolvencies declined regionally by 9% from 50,248 in 2023 to 45,938 in 2024; however, the decrease is misleading, as regulatory changes in Hungary skewed the numbers. When Hungary is excluded, insolvency cases actually increased from 29,771 in 2023 to 30,680 in 2024 (+3%), with the most rises in Slovenia (+32.4%), Latvia (+24.6%), Poland (+19%), Estonia (+10.2%), Romania (+9.4%), and Croatia (+7.3%). To read Coface's news release, with a link to the full report, go to https://www.coface.uk/news-economy-and-insights/cee-insolvencies-rise-despite-economic-recovery.

Atradius Barometer shows rising late payments but steady credit terms in Western Europe. Atradius' latest Payment Practices Barometer paints a challenging picture for Western Europe's B2B landscape. Nearly half (47%) of all invoices are now paid late, a trend the report attributes primarily to customers' financial stress, while outright write-offs already affect 6% of receivables. Looking ahead, 47% of companies expect a further rise in customer insolvencies. Yet, despite the deteriorating risk outlook, half of Western European businesses have not tightened their credit policies. Average payment terms remain broadly unchanged at 31–60 days, and more firms are lengthening than shortening those terms, suggesting a deliberate strategy to preserve sales by giving buyers extra breathing room even as payment uncertainty grows. To read Atradius' news release, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/reports/b2b-payment-practices-trends,-western-europe-2024.

The unpredictability of US tariffs has increased uncertainty for global businesses. According to the findings of the 2025 Allianz Trade Global Survey, which was conducted in two rounds—before and after the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements on 2 April—there has been a stark shift in expectations for growth, perceptions of risks, especially with regards to payment delays, and diverse strategies to mitigate the effect of the trade war. Even with the recent advent of bilateral trade deals, the fog of uncertainty remains. 60% of firms expect a negative impact from the trade war, and 45% expect export turnover to decline. In addition, following "Liberation Day", 25% of exporters anticipate payment terms will be longer by more than seven days, and 48% expect an increased non-payment risk, particularly in the US, Italy, and the UK. To read Allianz Trade's news release, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_global/news-insights/news/global-survey-2025.html.

Eurozone GDP is predicted to grow by just 0.9% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026. KPMG's latest European Economic Outlook suggests that uncertainty continues to sap business investment and consumer confidence, resulting in projected Eurozone GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026. KPMG also warns that a negotiated US–EU trade pact would add, at best, 0.1% to 2026 output. The picture is mixed, however, with subdued overall growth masking divergent performances across the continent. Southern and Eastern European economies, such as Spain and Poland, are performing strongly, while core economies, such as Germany and France, continue to face structural and fiscal constraints that could limit their growth. Furthermore, in KPMG's downside scenario—where headline tariffs ratchet higher—small, open, trade-intensive states like Ireland, Switzerland, and Germany could suffer GDP hits of up to 1.4% over the forecast horizon, deepening regional disparities. To read KPMG's news release, go to https://kpmg.com/uk/en/insights/economics/uk-economic-outlook.html.​​​​

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Flash PMI survey signals subdued growth in the G4 in May amid tariff uncertainty. The flash PMI data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence shows a slight pick-up in output across the four largest advanced economies—the "G4" bloc—but growth remains fragile. The GDP-weighted Composite Output Index (manufacturing + services) edged up from 50.5 in April to 50.9 in May, signalling expansion yet marking the second-weakest reading in 17 months. Mounting economic uncertainty—much of it tied to recent US tariff announcements—continues to cap activity. Among the G4, only the US registered output growth, and even there, the pace was one of the slowest in a year. To read S&P Global's news release, go to https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/flash-pmi-signals-subdued-developed-world-growth-in-may-amid-tariff-uncertainty-us-prices-spike-May25.html.

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Credit Management Resources
Compare Credit Insurance. Earlier this year, Bartlett Group launched a new platform, Compare Credit Insurance, designed to help businesses compare and select trade credit insurance. The website offers a user-friendly interface with comprehensive comparisons of various credit insurance options, "providing impartial insights to ensure businesses make informed choices." Key features include expert guidance, resources for better financial decision-making, and tools to help companies protect against payment risks or assess their existing coverage. Compare Credit Insurance aims to simplify and streamline the credit insurance process, making it more transparent and accessible for businesses. The Bartlett Group also encourages feedback to enhance the platform's services further. To explore the new service, visit https://comparecreditinsurance.co.uk/.

FREE timekeeping software for tracking and managing work hours online. Clockify is a free, cloud-based time-tracking and timesheet app designed for individuals, teams, and companies, which enables its users to keep track of how they use their time. This is useful if you want to see how much time specific tasks take and ensure that you're using your time valuably. It helps to improve and maintain focus, ensuring you make the most of every hour and avoid procrastination. Core features remain free for unlimited users, while paid plans offer additional benefits. For details, go to https://clockify.me/timekeeper-software.

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Automatically apply late fees and interest to your overdue invoices. Paidnice is a cloud-based accounts-receivable add-on for Xero and QuickBooks that automates late-fee and interest charging to encourage timely payment. The software monitors invoices, detects when they become overdue, and issues Bank of England–indexed interest charges either on the original invoice or as a separate finance charge. Clients can automate reminder emails, statements, and scheduled invoice sending, reducing the need for manual chasing. Only the outstanding balance is charged when partial payments arrive, and all entries are synced back to the ledger. For more information, go to https://www.paidnice.com/late-fee-manager.​​

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Events & Professional Development

​Global 2025: Export, Agency & Project Finance,10–12 June. Copenhagen, Denmark

BOOK HERE BY 25 APRIL & SAVE £600

Exile Group brings together our three key brands TXF (export finance), Proximo (project finance) and Uxolo (development finance) for an unbeatable opportunity to network, collaborate and originate deals. One ticket gives you access to all three industries. In 2024, 86% of attendees confirmed they will do more business as a result of attending the conference, making the event a true catalyst for the markets we cover.​

Why attend:

• Connect with the powerhouses of the industry: Step into this premier international gathering where over 1500 dealmakers from ECAs, DFIs, exporters, borrowers, developers, project sponsors, SOEs, government ministries, commercial banks, private insurers, law firms and institutional investors converge at the go-to event of the year!

• Unlock your origination potential: With just one trip, you'll be able to collaborate and originate deals with a wide range of stakeholders, and hold multiple meetings in one place for a jam-packed two days that will give you a fantastic return on your investment.

• Diversify your pipeline: With a global presence (over 63 countries in 2024), attendees will have the opportunity to learn from diverse perspectives, discover international best practices, and foster cross-border collaboration to enrich their own strategies and grow their business. All this, across export, project and development finance.​

View the full speakers list and agenda here

For sponsorship, speaking or group booking enquiries, contact marketing@exilegroup.com.

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Asia 2025: Agency, Energy & Infrastructure Finance, 14-16 October 2025. Singapore 

Be part of Asia’s most senior gathering for agency-backed finance

This October, join the region’s leading minds in Singapore for Asia 2025: Agency, Energy & Infrastructure Finance, the premier event dedicated to unlocking project and energy finance opportunities across Asia-Pacific.

Hosted by Exile Group, this three-day conference brings together decision-makers from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, banks, sponsors, law firms, and government to discuss the financing of tomorrow’s infrastructure. With tailored networking, insightful panels, and exclusive closed-door sessions, the event offers a unique opportunity to build relationships and identify new deals in key markets from Southeast Asia to Central Asia.

Whether you're advancing sustainable infrastructure, exploring new energy transitions, or facilitating cross-border projects, this is your platform to engage with the right people in the right place.

For more information visit the website, or contact us at marketing@exilegroup.com. 

 

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TXF Export Finance Dealmakers Assembly 2025, 25-26 November 2025. Vienna.

Join the Export Finance Dealmakers in Vienna

Exile Group invites you to Vienna this November for the TXF Export Finance Dealmakers Assembly 2025 – the essential meeting point for the global export finance community.

This two-day event brings together senior representatives from ECAs, exporters, borrowers, banks, and governments for high-impact networking, strategic discussions, and business-critical connections. With a sharp focus on deal origination and execution, experience a streamlined, dealmaker-driven format designed to maximise face time and accelerate relationships.

Whether you’re closing deals, sourcing finance, or driving policy, Vienna is the place to meet your counterparts and shape the future of export finance.

For more information visit the website, or contact us at marketing@exilegroup.com.

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About this month's Sponsor: The International Credit Insurance & Surety Association (ICISA)
As the global voice of the trade credit insurance and surety industries, ICISA brings together the world’s leading private insurers to strengthen trust in trade and investment and their reinsurers. Since its first meeting in 1926, ICISA has supported members in advancing technical excellence, product integrity, and economic resilience across borders.

In 2024, ICISA members insured about EUR 3.5 trillion in trade receivables and guaranteed billions in construction and infrastructure—demonstrating the industry’s deepening market reach and impact. Through proactive advocacy and engagement with international regulatory bodies, ICISA successfully shapes policy debates on Solvency II, the use products of our industry under Basel regulations, and the regulatory regimes of governments inside and outside of Europe.

These achievements directly benefit members by enhancing risk mitigation frameworks, opening new markets, and amplifying the voice of credit insurers and sureties on the global stage. In turn, this supports business continuity, trade expansion, and sustainable development in economies worldwide.

 

Explore the full ICISA 2024 Annual Results and learn how our members are shaping the future of trade credit insurance and surety.

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